II.2.2 - Calibration status

Calibration status by variable type

Variables are listed below along with a description of the state of their calibration.

• Environmental conditions (define river condition)
  • River description parameters relating geometry of river and dams. These parameters are fairly well described and no further improvements of these parameters are expected at this time.
  • Headwater parameters define the river environment flow and temperatures. Flow data exist for years from 1960 through 1995. Temperature in headwaters exists from 1966 through 1995. These parameters are fairly well described and no improvements are expected at this time.
  • Predator density in each reservoir is up to date as of 1994. As additional indices are obtained they will be included.
• Passage observations (define movement and survival of fish)
  • Release parameters include the number of fish released at each site at each day, the beginning and end of smoltiticaion onset
  • survival and passage timing: information on passage timing and survival of fish through the hydrosystem are adjusted according to model run specifics.
• Ecological parameters (characterize ecological interactions)
  • Nitrogen supersaturation parameters relate the buildup of gas as function of spill, flow, and temperature. These have been calibrated with data current through 1994.
  • Age at smoltification initiation (smolt_onset) and completion (smolt_finish) which are release-specific and also may depend on release date itself. Release information along with the predicted passage information at dams and reaches comprises the passage data in the model. These parameters are critical to survival estimates and are under further study.
  • Dam parameters describing passage mortality at dams and fish guidance efficiency have been derived from two decades of studies including results obtained from recent PIT tag studies.
  • Migration rate parameters have been calibrated for spring/summer and fall chinook and steelhead.
  • Predator activity has been calibrated with squawfish consumption information from John Day reservoir for spring and fall chinook and steelhead.
  • Transportation mortality calibration depends on the transport benefit ratio and in-river survival estimates. Although initial estimates have been obtained, both of these factors are under further analysis.

Fig. 5 Model relating environmental variables, fish passage and model ecological variables.

Calibration status by submodel

The CRiSP.1 submodels were individually calibrated. Thus CRiSP.1 was not directly calibrated from mark-recapture survival studies. Instead, such studies provided a check on the calibrations of the individual mechanisms of the model. Notes of the submodel calibrations are detailed below.

Travel Time

The travel time submodel was calibrated for fall chinook, spring chinook, and steelhead using tagging data from the entire river system and over the entire migration season. Two separate calibrations steps were applied: one to measure the spread of fish as they moved through the reservoir, and the other to measure the change in relative migration velocity with fish age. The first used marked, individual stock releases over a short period of time, and the second used marked and recaptured fish over entire seasons.

Predation Rate

Predator-prey interactions in CRiSP.1 were calibrated with information from predation studies in John Day Reservoir and information on the predation index for each of the major reservoirs.

Gas Bubble Disease

The rate of mortality was calibrated from dose-response studies conducted in both field and laboratory conditions.

Dam Passage

Diel passage elements of CRiSP.1 were calibrated from hydroacoustic and radio-tagging studies at dams. Fish guidance efficiency and spill efficiency were calibrated from a number of studies at a variety of dams. Fish guidance efficiency can be set to change with fish age and reservoir level or it can be set constant over the year. Mortalities in dam passage were determined from mark-recapture studies at dams.

Transportation Passage

Separation of large and small fish in transportation was applied from general information on the efficiency of the separators in the transportation facilities at dams. A transportation mortality was estimated for each species. In addition, time to transport fish through the river system was specified.

Nitrogen Supersaturation

Nitrogen supersaturation models were calibrated with data from the Army Corps and includes new information collected in the 1992 drawdown study in Lower Granite Reservoir and Little Goose Reservoirs and from total dissolved measurements in 1994.

Flow

Headwater flows in the Scenario Mode were calibrated from information on stream flows provided by the USGS. In Monte Carlo Mode, modulators of the period average hydro-model flows were calibrated with daily flow records at dams.

Water Velocity

Water velocity requires information on reservoir and geometry. The relationship between geometry and elevation and free stream velocities were determined from Lower Granite Reservoir drawdown studies.

Stochastic Processes

The ranges for variables used in the Monte Carlo Mode have been calibrated to available data in the above mentioned studies.