Information On: Alaska Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #1)

........... S.E. Alaska Troll (excluding hatchery add-ON)...
1                  , 1st Fishery Number
  338000  , 1979, catch
  300000  , 1980, catch
  248000  , 1981, catch
  242000  , 1982, catch
  271000  , 1983, catch
  236000  , 1984, catch
  212827  , 1985, catch
  229980  , 1986, catch
  230901  , 1987, catch
  216427  , 1988, catch
  220966  , 1989, catch
  263340  , 1990, catch
  230712  , 1991, catch
  162995  , 1992, catch
  211590  , 1993, catch
  176059  , 1994, catch
  400000  , 1995, fp control
  400000  , 1996,
  400000  , 1997,
  10      , Number of years to force ceilings
  1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994, Years to force ceilings

Information On: Northern BC Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #2)

........... Northern BC Troll ............................
2                  , 2nd Fishery Number
  148726  , 1979, catch
  163563  , 1980, catch
  151731  , 1981, catch
  174147  , 1982, catch
  163055  , 1983, catch
  179665  , 1984, catch
  186723  , 1985, catch
  152999  , 1986, catch
  177457  , 1987, catch
  152369  , 1988, catch
  207679  , 1989, catch
  154116  , 1990, catch
  194015  , 1991, catch
  142268  , 1992, catch
  161719  , 1993, catch
  165902  , 1994, catch prelim jan 26 95
  400000  , 1995, through last year of clg mgt fp control
  400000  , 1996, through last year of clg mgt fp cont
  400000  , 1997, through last year of clg mgt fp control
  10       , Number of years to force ceilings
  1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994, Years to force ceilings

Information On: Central BC Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #3)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: West Coast Vancouver Island Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #4)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Washingto/Oregon Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #5)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Georgia Strati Troll Fishery (Model Fishery #6)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Alaska Net Fishery (Model Fishery #7)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Northern BC Net Fishery (Model Fishery #8)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Central BC Net Fishery (Model Fishery #9)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: West Coast Vancouver Island Net Fishery (Model Fishery #10)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Juan de Fuca Strait Net Fishery (Model Fishery #11)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Puget Sound North Net Fishery (Model Fishery #12)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Puget Sound South Net Fishery (Model Fishery #13)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Washington Coast Net Fishery (Model Fishery #14)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Columbia River Net Fishery (Model Fishery #15)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Johnstone Strait Net Fishery (Model Fishery #16)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Fraser River Net Fishery (Model Fishery #17)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Alaska Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #18)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: North/Central BC Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #19)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: West Coast Vancouver Island Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #20)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Washington Ocean Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #21)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Puget Sound North Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #22)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Puget Sound South Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #23)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Georgia Strait Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #24)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Columbia River Sport Fishery (Model Fishery #25)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Alaska South SE Stock (Model Stock #1)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: North/Central BC Stock (Model Stock #2)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The North/Central stock group represents all BC stocks north of Vancouver Island. The major rivers represented in this group consist of the Skeena, the Nass, the Atnarko and the Kitimat Rivers. This stock is primarily made up of spring and summer run fish, although some fall or late summer runs are known to occur in the central coast (south of the Skeena). These stocks appear to largely stream-type (one year fresh water residence) and late maturing (predominant ages at return are ocean age 3 and 4). Ocean-type fish are more common in the central coast than in the north coast. The size of this stock is not certain. Visual Fishery Officer estimates sum to about 50,000 pieces during the 79-82 base period, but this is likely an underestimate. Currently, this stock is undergoing an increase and visual estimates approximate 100,000 pieces. Large enhancement projects have been mainly limited to the Bella Coola and Kitimat drainages. Both these facilities have egg capacities in the range of 3 to 5 million eggs and have not achieved full returns as yet.

Tag recoveries indicate that the distribution of ocean catch is mainly in the North BC and Alaskan troll fisheries, with important catches in the North/Central BC net and sport fisheries. These latter catches are divided between captures of out-migrating juveniles and in-migrating adults. The basic management goals for this stock grouping are to increase fisheries on surplus wild and hatchery fish for native and sport harvest.

Three brood years of tag codes have been summarized to provide the background harvest information for this stock grouping. The tag codes come from the Bella Coola and Kitimat hatcheries as follows:

        BY 76   022016  Kitimat
                022017  Kitimat
                022018  Kitimat

        BY 77   022020  Kitimat
                022021  Kitimat
                022022  Kitimat
                022048  Bella Coola

        BY 78   021614  Bella Coola
                021732  Kitimat

The brood years selected were chosen to fully cover the base period in the model and these tag codes are the only ones available for these brood years. Because these codes come from the central coast only, only one stock group can be formed. There are no useable tag codes from the Skeena or the Nass to make a separate Skeena/Nass stock. The major problem with all these codes is the lack of any escapement data. In order to estimate escapements for this stock, the maturity schedule from the upper Georgia Strait stock was used (this is the oldest stock among the input groups).

Information On: Fraser River Early Stock (Model Stock #3)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Fraser River divides naturally into three large groupings. These are the Fraser River above Hope, the Thompson River drainage (the largest tributary) and the Harrison (Late) component. Almost all stocks returning above Hope enter the lower river before September, with a major peak occuring in late June or early July. It is hypothesized that this peak corresponds with the large runds returning to uppermost areas above Prince George (these include the Nechako, the Bowron, Slim Creek, and Tete-Jaune). However, there is considerable migration into the river by chinook throughout the summer. Stocks which return later (but are still considered summer runs) include the Chilko, the Quesnel, and most of the runs returning to the Thompson drainage. Fresh-water life history scale patterns indicate taht most upper Fraser stocks appear to be yearling salt-water migrants. They are also an older stock with the primary ages at return being ocean age 3 and 4. However, stocks which spawn in the Thompson drainage are mixed, with the far-north migrating Shuswap stock migrating to the ocean during the first summer and returning predominantly as ocean age 3 fish. Stocks which spawn in the interior dry-belt (e.g., Nicola River) migrate as yearlings and return as ocean age 2 fish.

Escapement stock size estimates are visual estimates made by field personnel during peak spawning periods. They are likely to be underestimates (as is usual with these types of estimates). Tables 7 to 10 in the 1985 CTC Agency Report summarize the visual estimates to the various sub-groupings. The average count for the entire run above Hope during the 79-82 base period is 43,000. The current estimate is in the order of X0,000 to X0,000. There are major enhancement facilities ont he Quesnel River (about 3 million eggs) and on the Eagle River (South Thompson drainage / 2 million eggs). Other facilities are scattered, are smaller, and are mainly in the Thompson drainage basin. The total hatchery production capacity in the upper Fraser is X,000,000 eggs.

Wild tagging was attempted in the upper Fraser for 3 to 4 years in succession. Tag recoveries have been almost uniformly poor. Tags applied on the Chilko and Tete-Jaune stocks have had survival to recovery values of less than 0.1% and more than half of the survival has been escapement (expansion of Petersen mark/recovery estimates). The few fishery recoveries have been scattered between the Georgia Strait sport, an occasional northern troll recovery, and the Fraser terminal gillnet fishery. Tagging in the Thompson drainage has been relatively more successful and recovery rates int he ocean fisheries have been about 0.3%. The recoveries indicate that these fish are true far-north migrating stocks being caught predominantly in the North BC and Alaska troll fisheries. They also show up in all the approach net fisheries (including Puget Sound) and have relatively few contributions to the Georgia Strait fisheries. The stated escapement goal for this stock is 96,000 (Table 4, 1985 CTC Agency Report). Management goals for this stock include establishing directed in-river sport fisheries on identified surplus fish. These stocks are also harvested by native fisheries (which may partially explain the lack of tag recoveries for the Chilko and Tete-Jaune stocks).

There are at least 16 codes ranging from the 75 to the 79 brood years which were applied to wild Fraser stocks. Of these, the following 6 codes were used:

        BY 78   021602  Chilko
                021658  Chilko
                021625  Shuswap
                021638  Shuswap

        BY 79   021601  Shuswap
                021755  Shuswap

These codes were selected entirely on the basis of actual contribution numbers. Other codes supplied so few recoveries (either because not enough were marked or the survival was poor) that their use would not affect the estimated harvest rates. Again, there were insufficient data to distinguish between the Thompson drainage stock and the upper Fraser stock. Escapement data were collected from both the above spawning stocks in 1983 and 1984. Therefore, there are estimates of age 4 and age 5 spawners only. The age 5 estimates were allowed to stand (as these have to be assumed in the calculation procedure). However, the age 4 estimate for the 1979 brood year Shuswap appeared to be extremely low. Therefore, the same calculation method as used for the North BC stock was used to estimate all other escapements.

Information On: Fraser River Late Stock (Model Stock #4)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

It has long been known that there is a distinct fall run of chinook to the Fraser. It peaks in the lower river in the last week of September and the fish all have a white flesh colour. The latter characteristic is traceable in the commercial sale information from the terminal gillnet fishery as white-fleshed chinook are sold at a different price and are kept separate on the fish tickets. In the past, this stock has supported substantial directed large-mesh gillnet fisheries, with catches of 10,000 to 20,000 recorded in single 12-hour openings.

This stock appears to be concentrated entirely in the short section of the Harrison River between harrison Lake and the confluence with the Fraser River (about 20 kilometers). It is unknown if fish migrate past this section into upper reaches of the drainage. This stock is entirely ocean-type and appears to be a relatively early maturing stock with a large proportion of age 3 (ocean age 2) fish. Juvenile fish do not appear to rear at all in the spawning stream. Instead, fry migration studies record substantial chinook fry migrations in the lower Fraser River (these usually peak in mid-April). The fry all appear to be recently emerged. The hypothesized life history for this stock assumes that it invades available habitat throughout the lower Fraser, in particular the tidal marshes of the estuary, where they have been shown to reside up to six weeks. Visual counts of the spawning stock by Fishery Officers have ranged from estimates of less than 10,000 in the mid-60's to mid-70's to 20,000 to 40,000 in the 80's. Petersen mark/recovery estimates made since 1984 indicate that the spawning stock may range up to 150,000. Estimates of total fry migration in the mid-7o's seemed to indicate at that time that the spawning stock could be 5 to 10 times larger than the Fishery Officer estimate in order to account for the size of the fry migration. The stated escapement goal is 175,000 as measured with a Petersen estimate (Table 4 of the 1985 CTC Agency Report). Management goals include the establishment of a terminal sport fishery directed at the large jack population of this stock and to surplus fish when available.

Enhancement on this stock has occurred on the Chehalis River (a tributary of the Harrison) and on the Chilliwack River (on the south side of the Fraser). The Chehalis has an egg target of 1,000,000 chinook eggs and the Chilliwack takes about 3,000,000 chinook eggs. However, the Chehalis hatchery has had very poor survivals of chinook within the hatchery (less than 40%) due to an endemic disease problem. The Chilliwack hatchery is trying to establish red-fleshed summer runs into that river (the native run thas disappeared) and expects to gradually phase out the rearing of white-fleshed chinook.

This stock was the first stock tagged with coded wire tags in the 1971 brood years. However, this tag data cannot be used because the recovery program was not in full development at the time the tags returned. Tagging did not resume on this stock until the 1981 brood year, when experimental hatchery releases were made from the Chehalis and the Chilliwack hatcheries. Ocean tag returns from these releases indicate that this stock contributes substantially to all fisheries inside Georgia Strait (40% of the recoveries), to the west coast of Vancouver Island (30% of the recoveries), and to the approach net fisheries (including Puget Sound net 15% of the recoveries). The tag codes used are:

        BY 81   022163  Chilliwack
                022205  Chehalis

No escapement data are available for either of these stocks. When the maturity schedules for fall-run Georgia Strait stocks (Big Qualicum) were used to estimate the escapement, a total harvest rate of nearly 90% was calculated. This was because of the large (terminal) net harvest rate on the lower Fraser stock when compared to the Georgia Strait stock. However, the maturity schedule used was arbitrarily chosen such that the resultant total harvest rate would be near 80%. See Appendix for details of the calculations. In order to scale the base period escapement to the stated optimum (which is based on the Petersen estimates), the visual estimates were multiplied by 6, which the average of the ratio of the Petersen estimates to the visual estimates over the period 1982 to 1985 (earlier multiplications are based on expansions of intensive dead pitch activities).

Information On: West Coast Vancouver Island Hatchery Stock (Model Stock #5)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

There is a considerable hatchery stock associated with the west coast Vancouver Island stock grouping. Approximately 9M fingerlings are released annually from the Robertson Creek hatchery on the Somass River. Another 1.5M fingerlings are released by the Nitinat hatchery and it is expected that the Conuma hatchery in Tahsis Inlet will release another 1.5M fingerlings. Calculation of the optimum and the productivity parameters for this stock is given in the productivity section of the documentation. The same tag codes were used to calculate the harvest rates as for the naturally spawning stocks.

Information On: West Coast Vancouver Island Natural Stock (Model Stock #6)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

This stock grouping represents all stocks which spawn on the west coast of Vancouver Island. Although this group of stocks is dominated by the Somass River stock (Barkley Sound), there are other stocks of importance in the Nitinat River, the Kennedy River, the Gold River, and the Marble River. As in most area of BC, escapement estimates are obtained through visual counts by field personnel. These counts are not obtained through any established or rigorous methodology and probably constitute an underestimate of stock size. The escapement is complicated by the presence of the Robertson Creek hatchery. The base period naturally spawning escapement is estimated to be about 7500 pieces by visual estimate. Recent (1984-1986) work using various mark/recapture estimation procedures place the natural spawning stock in the 40,000 to 70,000 range. The escapement objective for this stock is stated at 91,000. This includes an objective of 70,000 for the naturally spawning portion of the Somas, which is based on the stock sizes seen by the 1984 Petersen estimate.

All biological information from this area indicate that this stock is a fall run stock with ocean ages 2 and 3 predominating. Almost all juvenile migration occurs in the spring and early summer (sub-yearling). This stock is a far-north migrating stock based on the distribution of fishery tag recoveries which show that 60% occur in the North BC and Alaska troll fisheries. Another 11% of the recoveries occur in the west coast Vancouver Island troll fishery, and outside net recoveries account for another 7%. There are substantial terminal net and sport fisheries which account for 17% of the input data recoveries.

The CWT codes used to construct the input stock data all come from Robertson Creek hatchery codes. The same codes used in the 1984 version of the model were used in the 86/87 version. The codes used were:

        BY 74   020606
                020609

        BY 75   020408
                020409

        BY 76   021630
                021631

        BY 77   022217
                022218

The codes used are the production codes associated with each brood year. More brood years were used for this stock than in other input stocks because some changes occurred in the collection of rack information after 1981. Accordingly, it was feared that using the more recent brood years would bias the estimates of harvest rates. However, data from the older brood years were not considered to be as representatiive of the harvest patterns to be simulated by the PSC model. Therefore, all the brood years used were averaged as a compromise.

In order to calculate a base period escapement for this stock that would be in the same ratio as the stated optimum, the visual estimates for the naturally spawning fraction of the Somass River were increased by a factor of 5. This factor is approximately the ratio of the 1984 Petersen estimate to the 1984 visual observation estimate.

Information On: Upper Georgia Strait Stock (Model Stock #7)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Georgia Strait consists of at least two distinct groups of stocks. These two groups are the rivers flowing into the Strait of Georgia along the east coast of Vancouver Island and the rivers flowing into the mainland inlets on the other side of the Straits. The rivers flowing into Johnstone Strait (both east and west sides) form a third grouping of stocks which is allied with the Georgia Strait stocks. The 1984 version of the PSC model lumped all three of these stock groupings into a single stock for modeling purposes. The 1986/87 version has divided the Johnstone Strait grouping away from the Georgia Strait stock groups, largely on the basis of tag recoveries from the Quinsam hatchery.

The upper Georgia Strait stock group represents all rivers flowing into the top of Georgia Strait including the upper mainland inlets (Puntledge River, Campbell/Quinsam River, Bute River, and Southgate River), Johnstone Strait (Klinaklini River, Nimpkish River), and Queen Charlotte Strait (Kingcome River, Keough River). This is a diverse group of stocks for which little biological data are available. It is suspected that the majority of stocks which spawn in the large, cold, and poorly productive streams of the mainland inlets are yearling migrants which have a far-north migration pattern. They are slo primarily spring and summer run fish. The primary age at return would be ocean age 3 and 4. Stocks returning to Vancouver Island streams are mainly fall and late summer run and appear to be summer or late spring (fingerling) migrants, but they also have the far-north migration pattern and appear to be mainly ocean age 3 and 4 at maturity, with a significant component of ocean age 5 as well. Stock abundance estimates are extremely unreliable due to the remoteness of many of the large rivers and to the quantity of glacial till which colour the river waters. Visual estimates are also difficult to time so that peak spawning periods are covered. The total estimated spawning stock averaged 11,500 pieces during the base period and the stated escapement goal is 23,000 (Table 4 of the 1985 CTC Agency Report does not sub-divide the total Georgia Strait goal). These numbers include river spawning in the Quinsam, Campbell and Puntledge Rivers. There are no specific management goals for this stock grouping apart from maintaining current fishing levels in local areas. Enhancement in this stock group is centered about the Quinsam hatchery with an egg target of 2,000,000 eggs. Total production capacity of all facilities is X,000,000 eggs.

Tag returns from the Quinsam hatchery establish the far-north migration pattern for this stock and the older average age of maturation. The majority of the fishery recoveries for this stock come from the North BC and Alaska troll fisheries (45% of the recoveries) and from the net fisheries of Johnstone Strait, North BC and Alaska (40% of the recoveries). The balance of the recoveries come from miscellaneous fisheries, particularly the sport fisheries of North BC considerable sport fishery which develops around the estuary of the Campbell River in the fall.

The tag codes used in the 1986/87 version of the model are the same as used in the 1984 version. The following codes were used:

        BY 77   021736  Quinsam
                021737  Quinsam
                021738  Quinsam

        BY 78   021759  Quinsam
These codes are the production codes associated with this hatchery during those two brood years. Escapement data are routinely collected at this hatchery, including some (unknown) fraction of strays below the hatchery in both the Quinsam and Campbell Rivers. Escapement below the hatchery was doubled to account for the estimated coverage during the recovery effort. This expansion factor is the average of the river coverage fraction estimated from mark/recovery work from 1984 to 1986.

The visual escapement data for 1986 in the mainland inlet area of upper Georgia Strait (Area 13) was also adjusted for the purposes of modeling input. This was done because it appeared that the field staff had made an extremely large count of spawners in the main river of this area (Southgate River) primarily due to the coincidence of very clear observation conditions, good weather, and peak spawning period. All other counts in the other areas of this stock grouping showed declines or modest increases. Therefore the average relative change from 1985 to 1986 for all other systems in the upper Georgia Strait stock group was used to adjust the 1985 visual estimate for Area 13.

Information On: Lower Georgia Strait Natural Stock (Model Stock #8)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The rivers covered by this stock grouping include all rivers flowing into Georgia Strait from a point about midway down the east coast of Vancouver Island (Big and Little Qualicum Rivers, Nanaimo River, Chemainus River, and Cowichan River). It also includes the lower inlets on the east side of Georgia Strait (Toba River, Jervis River, and Squamish River). These rivers were lumped with the upper Georgia Strait stock in the 1984 version of the PSC model. In order to calculate base period escapements and escapement goals, the hatchery production had to be separated from the naturally occurring spawning. For the Lower Georgia Strait stock grouping, all river escapements were including in the naturally spawning fraction. Rack returns for the Big Qualicum and Capilano only were included in the hatchery escapements. The base period escapement for this stock was 17,000 and the stated escapement goal is 33,000. Management goals are as for the upper Georgia Strait stock (see above).

The Vancouver Island streams from this stock appear to be late fall run stocks with a limited northward migration pattern. A significant proportion of these fish appear to reside throughout their marine life in Georgia Strait itself. The majority of the fish appear to migrate to sea after less than 3 months of freshwater rearing. Age at maturity appears to be divided between ocean age 2 and age 3 with ocean age 4 almost non-existent. The mainland inlet stocks are less well-known with respect to life history patterns. The Squamish River used to have yearling migrants and an early fall run timing. However, this stock has been badly overfished, and current timing from hatchery returns indicate that a later fall run pattern currently predominates. In addition, current data indicate that the Squamish has fingerling sea-ward migrants. Information from the other inlet rivers are not available.

Tag returns from Big Qualicum and Capilano hatcheries indicate that 70% of the fishery recoveries from this stock occur in Georgia Strait. Only 99% of the recoveries occur in the northern troll fisheries. Most of the other recoveries occur in net fisheries, particularly in Johnstone Strait (8%) and the central area (7%).

The tag codes used in the 1986/87 version of the model are the same as used in the 1984 version. The following codes were used:

        BY 77   021639  Capilano
                021642  Capilano
                021726  Big Qualicum
                021727  Big Qualicum

        BY 78   021612  Big Qualicum
                021613  Big Qualicum
                021656  Big Qualicum
                021728  Capilano
                021729  Capilano
                021730  Capilano
These codes are the production codes associated with these hatcheries during the two brood years. A fence is maintained at the mouth of the Big Qualicum River and all tags are recovered at passage through the fence. There was some uncertainty associated with the escapement recoveries from the Capilano hatchery. Therefore, the escapement returns from this hatchery were not used in the model input. Instead, the annual harvest rate of the Big Qualicum was calculated and applied to the combined catch data from both hatcheries.

Information On: Georgia Strait Hatchery Stock (Model Stock #9)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The hatchery production of Georgia Strait was included as a separate stock in the 86/87 version of the PSC model. Hatchery rack returns from Quinsam, Puntledge, Big Qualicum and Capilano were averaged over the 79-82 base period to calculate the base period escapement. The escapement goal calculations and productivity parameter calculations are shown in productivity section of the documentation. The same tag codes as used for the naturally spawning lower Georgia Strait stock were used to calculate the harvest rates for this stock. Current releases for all hatcheries in Georgia Strait total about 19M fingerlings with an expected maximum under current plans of 20M.

Information On: Nooksack/Samish Fingerling Fall Stock (Model Stock #10)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Nooksack/Samish region is managed for hatchery production during the return period of fall chinook. The stock included in the model represents both natural and hatchery production since it is believed that the majority of the natural production originates from hatchery strays. The average run size and escapement during the base period is given below.

The average escapement includes an estimated 218 fish which originated from yearling production. Hence, the stock was calibrated to an escapement of 11,923 fish. The escapement goal is the average escapement in 1979-82 minus the estimated average escapement of 218 fish which originated from yearling production (estimate obtained from the WDF/NBS model).

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Puget Sound Hatchery Fingerlings Stock (Model Stock #11)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Puget Sound fall hatchery fingerling is an aggregate stock which includes a South Puget Sound and a Hood Canal component. Each of these areas is managed for hatchery production with the exception of the Green River stock in South Puget Sound. Natural production in these areas is grouped in a separate stock aggregate, the Puget Sound fall natural stock. Average run sizes and escapement goals for components of the Puget Sound hatchery stock are listed below.

                                Escpmnt         Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1979-81         
                                                            
        Hood Canal               2,459           2,018      
        South Puget South       20,197          27,549      
                                                            
        Total                   22,656          29,567      
The stock was scaled to an escapement of 24,055 since the average escapement includes an estimated 5,512 fish (Hood Canal = 292; SPS = 5,220) which originated from yearling production (estimated from cohort analysis of yearling stocks).

Input data were developed independently for the Hood Canal and South Puget South stocks before each stock

South Puget South. Tag codes from brood years 1978 and 1979 were used for the South Puget South component.

        Brood Year      1978    1979
        Catch           2,720   4,170
        Brood Weight    1.5331  1.0000
        Tag Codes       631814  050722
                        621842  631903
                        631907  631943
                        631935  631944
                        631936  632020
                        631940  632063
                        631945  632103
                                632104
The escapement for the tag codes was estimated using the average terminal catch/escapement ratio.
        Year    Catch      Escpmnt       Ratio

        1979    14,614     29,785       0.4906
        1980    20,628     27,200       0.7584
        1981    23,858     25,663       0.9297
        1982    14,696     19,021       0.7726

        Average                         0.7378

    Average             PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Catch/Escpmnt           CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

    0.7378                 1,969        2,669           973     2.7428
Hood Canal. The distribution of the Hood Canal stock component was modelled using tag codes from brood years 1978 and 1979.
        Brood Year      1978    1979
        Catch           1,419   433
        Brood weight    1.0000  3.2771
                        631752  632041
                        632915  632109
The escapement for the Hood Canal tag groups was estimated from the average terminal catch/ escapement ratio.
        Year    Catch     Escpmnt       Ratio

        1979    2,151      1,264        1.7017
        1980    4,591      1,836        2.5005
        1981    8,380      2,954        2.8368
        1982    3,479      4,949        0.7030

        Average                 1.9355

    Average             PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Catch/Escpmnt           CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

    1.9355               830             429            310      1.2833
Aggregation of Components. The South Puget Sound and Hood Canal components were weighted prior to aggregation to preserve the relative abundance of each component. Escapement is the average from 1979 through 1982 minus the estimated escapement from yearling production.
                                            Escapement                 
        Stock                   CWT     Observed        Scale

        South Puget Sound       2,669   20,197          .757
        Hood Canal                429    2,459          .573
The scale factor (or expansion factor) is equal to the observed escapement divided by 10 times the CWT escapement.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Puget Sound Natural Fingerling Stocks (Model Stock #12)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Puget Sound natural stock includes natural stocks returning to South Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Average escapements and the escapement goal for each component are listed below.

                                Escpmnt        Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1979-81 1975-78

        Hood Canal                               1,112    1,867
        South Puget Sound                       14,935    9,914

        Total                   14,145          16,047   11,781
The escapement goal is the average escapement from 1979 though 1982. The prior escapement was inadvertently computed using the years 1975 through 1978 rather than 1976 through 1979.

The same tag codes were used to represent the natural stocks as were used for the Puget Sound hatchery stocks, but the escapement was estimated using the terminal catch/escapement ratio for natural stocks rather than hatchery stocks.

Hood Canal Natural

        Year    Catch     Escpmnt       Ratio

        1979    2,960       2,202       1.3442
        1980    1,561         843       1.8517
        1981    2,268         292       7.7671
        1982    2,470         437       5.6522

        Average                         4.1538

South Puget Sound Natural

        Year    Catch     Escpmnt       Ratio

        1979    8,006      17,011       0.4706
        1980    8,506      19,467       0.4369
        1981    4,557       8,326       0.5473
        1982    6,581       8,002       0.8224

        Average                         0.5693



         Average        PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Stock   Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

HC         4.1538          830             200           310    0.6446
SPS        0.5693        1,969           3,459           973    3.5546
The South Puget Sound and Hood Canal components were weighted prior to aggregation to preserve the relative abundance of each component.
                                         Escapement                 
        Stock                   CWT     Observed        Scale

        South Puget Sound       3,459     13,202        3.82
        Hood Canal                200        944        4.72
The observed escapement is the average from 1979 through 1982. The scale factor (or expansion factor) is equal to the observed escapement divided by the CWT escapement.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Puget Sound Hatchery Yearling Stock (Model Stock #13)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Puget Sound yearling stock consists of hatchery production of yearlings from hatcheries in South Puget Sound (including accelerated production from the University of Washington), Hood Canal, Skagit, and the North Puget Sound region. Average escapements and the escapement goal for each component is given below.

                                Escpmnt Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal       1979-81     

        Hood Canal                 292         292
        South Puget Sound        5,220       5,220
        North Puget Sound        5,320       5,320

        Total                   10,832      10,830
The escapement goal is equal to the escapement estimated from cohort analysis.

The expansion of the tag group to represent stocks was done slightly differently for the yearling stocks than for other stocks in Puget Sound. This modification was necessary because of the lack of data on the abundance of the yearling stocks relative to fingerling stocks. Fish originating from fingerling or yearling production are not differentiated in the hatchery escapement records.

In order to estimate the total abundance of yearling stocks, the recoveries of marked fish were multiplied by an expansion factor related to the average marked to unmarked ratio. The expansion factor was calculated by:

  1. Computing the average number of yearlings released (N) during the base period;
  2. The expansion factor (Fi) for tag groups within each year was then computed by dividing the mean number fo fish released by the number of marked fish released and the number of brood years (n) in which tagging occurred.

    Fi = N / (Mi * n)

Input data for production from each area were developed independently before the stocks were aggregated.

South Puget Sound. The South Puget Sound stock consisted of accelerated production from the University of Washington and the production of yearlings from other hatcheries in South Puget Sound. Tag codes and data used to compute the expansion factors are given in the tables below.

University of Washington Accelerated Production Mean Release (1976-79): 159,115

   Brood Year        1977            1978            1979             
                Code    Marked  Code    Marked  Code    Marked

                111601  26,185  111603  24,639  111627  18,488
                111602  26,331  111604  23,653  111628  20,573
                                111605  27,165  111629  20,008
                                111606  23,978  111630  15,828
                                111617   3,339  111631  20,196
                                111618  53,537  111632  21,822
                                111624   3,637

        Marked          52,516         159,048         116,915
        Factor          1.0099          0.3335          0.4536
Other South Puget Sound Yearling Production Mean Release (1976-79): 1,534,698
   Brood Year        1978            1979           
                Code    Marked  Code    Marked

                631853   3,665  632015  16,080
                631905  20,400  632019  30,929
                632004  48,196  632027  10,243
                632023  13,495  632055   9,696
                                632056   8,651
                                632128  10,433
                                632220   4,659
                                632221   3,060
                                632228  10,169

        Marked          85,756         103,920
        Factor          8.9481          7.3840
Escapement was estimated using the average terminal catch/escapement ratio.

UW Accelerated (Lake Wash. hatchery entry in run reconstruction)

        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1979    1,003     6,115 0.1640
        1980       995    6,541 0.1521
        1981    1,358     6,109 0.2223
        1982    2,806     7,219 0.3887

        Average                 0.2318
Other South Puget Sound (Total SPS hatchery entry in run reconstruction)
        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1979    14,614   29,785 0.4906
        1980    20,628   27,200 0.7584
        1981    23,858   25,663 0.9297
        1982    14,696   19,021 0.7726

        Average                 0.7378

         Average        PS Net  Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Stock   Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

UW         0.2318          532    2,295         285     8.0529
SPS        0.7378        2,159    2,926         453     6.4592
Weighting the UW and Other Sound stocks prior to aggregation was not necessary since the tag codes had already been expanded to account for the total production which they represented.

Hood Canal. Data used to construct the Hood Canal yearling stock is given in the table below.

Hood Canal Yearling Production Mean Release (1976-79): 316,459

   Brood Year        1978            1979           
                Code    Marked  Code     Marked

                631637   6,732  632057    6,245
                631840   1,098
                631852  15,935

        Marked          23,765            6,245
        Factor          6.6581          25.3369
The average terminal catch/escapement ratio was used to estimate the escapement for the Hood Canal yearling stock.
        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1979      2,151   1,264 1.7017
        1980      4,591   1,836 2.5005
        1981      8,380   2,954 2.8368
        1982      3,479   4,949 0.7030

        Average                 1.9355

         Average        PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Stock   Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

HC          1.9355          568          293            232     1.2629

North Puget Sound Yearling

The North Puget Sound yearling stock includes hatchery release from the Skagit and Snohomish production areas. One Skagit and one Skykomish tag code were used to represent the North Puget Sound yearling production.

North Puget Sound Yearling Production Mean Release (1976-79): 1,619,205

   Brood Year        1976              
                Code    Marked

                631610  73,428
                631701  98,972

        Marked         172,400
        Factor          9.3921
The expansion factor of 9.3921 produced a catch of over 9,999 fisheries which is more than permitted by the current format of the input data. In order to avoid this problem, the expansion factor was divided by 10. When the Puget Sound yearling aggregate was created, the South Puget Sound and Hood Canal components were multiplied by .1 to preserve the relative abundance of each stock.

The escapement for the North Puget Sound yearling stock was estimated from the terminal catch/escapement ratio.

(Total Skagit, Snohomish, and Tulalip hatchery run)

        Year    Catch   Escpmnt  Ratio

        1979      2,695   2,160 1.2477
        1980      7,545   5,083 1.4844
        1981      8,633   4,638 1.8614
        1982      3,842   3,377 1.1377

        Average                 1.4328

        Average         PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
        Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

            1.4328          762         532              285    1.8667
Aggregation of Components. The Hood Canal, South Puget Sound, and North Puget Sound stocks were aggregated into a single stock Puget Sound yearling stock. Since the North Puget Sound recoveries had been divided by 10, the Hood Canal and South Puget Sound stocks were given weight factors of .1 at the time of aggregation.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Nooksack Spring Stock (Model Stock #14)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Limited information is available for the Nooksack spring stock, but it appears that escapement has been less than optimum. The available data on the stock is summarized below. The estimated terminal run sizes, escapement, and escapement goal are under review by a tribal/state committee.

Since escapement estimates were not available for years prior to 1980, the input data was scaled to the average escapement in 1980-81. The escapement in the prior cycle was estimated from a regression of escapement versus time (intercept = 261,862; slope = -131.559). The input data incorrectly had the prior escapement reported as 507.

Code 051418 from brood year 1981 was used to represent the stock. Since this was outside of the base period of the model, COHSHAK4 was used to modify the recoveries to account for changes in fishing mortality.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Skagit Summer Fall (Model Stock #15)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Summer chinook in the Skagit are managed on a natural basis although a small hatchery component exists. The escapement goal and average escapement are provided below.

                                Escpmnt         Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1979-81 1976-79

        Skagit Summer           14,900          14,207  12,185
Tag codes used to represent the stock were obtained primarily from wild stock tagging conducted in 1977 and 1978. Recoveries from these tagging projects were limited. To provide additional recoveries, a hatchery tag group from the 1976 brood was included as well. The tag codes and the weight for each brood year are listed below:
Brood Year      1976    1977

Catch           1,925   491

Brood Weight    1.000   3.9206

        631624 (natural)                631630 (natural)
        631625 (natural)                631631 (natural)
        631626 (natural)                631632 (natural)
        631627 (natural)                631633 (natural)
        631628 (natural)                631635 (natural)
        631629 (natural)                631636 (natural)
        631606 (hatchery)
Several methods were utilized to estimate the escapement for the Skagit tag codes.
  1. The terminal catch/escapement ratio from the WDF run reconstruction;
  2. The maturation rate of the Puget Sound fingerling stock;
  3. The ocean harvest rate of the Puget Sound fingerling stock.
The expected escapement computed from the average terminal catch/escapement ratio was 581 age 3-5 fish.
        Year    Catch   Escapement      Ratio

        1979    10,509      13,605      0.7724
        1980    10,649      20,345      0.5234
        1981    13,071       8,670      1.5076
        1982    13,696      10,439      1.3120

        Average                         1.0289

    Average     PS Net          Expected        CWT     Escpmnt
Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.        Escpmnt         Escpmnt Scale     

    1.0311      599             581              65     8.9385
The maturation schedule method relied upon maturation rates from the Puget Sound fingerling stock and an input harvest rate for age 5 fish. The age 5 harvest rate was selected so that the average escapement scale for the age 3 and 4 escapements was equal to the age 5 escapement scale.
        Age 5 Harvest Rate    =  .6119
        Age 4 Maturation Rate =  .8468
        Age 3 Maturation Rate =  .1500
        Age 2 Maturation Rate =  .0141
The ocean harvest rate method utilized the equation:
        R = O / (O + E + T)
or, solving for E
        E = (O - R * (O + T)) / R
where O is the ocean catch, E is the age 3 through 5 escapement, T is the terminal catch, and R is the ocean harvest rate. The ocean harvest rate of the Puget Sound fingerling stock was on the assumption that it would be similar to that of the Skagit stock. The expected escapement for the Skagit is given by:
        E = 3,217 - (.58) * (3,850) / .58  =  1,697
The first method resulted in a harvest rate (total harvest rate equal to .8634 without shakers) which appeared to be unrealistically high given the stability of the escapement for the stock. Method 2 gave a lower ocean harvest rate than the Puget Sound fingerling stock, which also seemed unreasonable. Method 3 was selected because it resulted in realistic ocean, terminal, and total harvest rates.

Results from the above CWT experiments show the principal fisheries harvesting these stocks outside Puget Sound are the West Coast Vancouver Island troll fishery and the Georgia Strait sport and troll fisheries.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Stillaguamish Wild Stock (Model Stock #16)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Stillaguamish stock is managed on a natural stock basis. The average escapement and escapement goal is given below:

                                Escpmnt           Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1979-81 1976-79

        Stillaguamish Summer    2,000             831     1,511
The Stillaguamish stock was tagged in brood years 1980 through 1982. The tag code use in each brood year is given below. Since no escapement data were available, the age composition of the Skagit stock was used for the Stillaguamish stock.
        Brood Year      1980    1981    1982

        Tag Code        05048   051063  051427
Since the tagging occurred outside of the model base period, the recoveries were adjusted using the procedure implemented in the COHSHAK4 program. This procedure requires that escapement data exist for each brood year. No escapement recoveries existed for any of the Stillaguamish tag codes. The terminal catch/escapement ratio was used to estimate the age 3 to 5 escapement for each tag code, and the age composition of the Skagit escapement was used to distribute the total escapement among age classes.
                 Average        PS Net                  Expected
        Code    Catch/Escpmnt   CWT Rec.             Escpmnt by Age    
                                                 2       3       4       5

        050843       1.50        6              0.4     1.5     2.5     0.2
        051063       1.10        6              0.5     2.0     3.4     0.3
        051427       0.89       17              1.9     7.1     11.7    1.2
After COHSHAK4 had been used to convert the tag recoveries to the base period, the three methods previously discussed for the Skagit were used to estimate the Stillaguamish escapement.

The average terminal catch/escapement ratio from 1979 through 1982 was 2.72.

        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1979    1,485     1,042 1.4251
        1980    1,968       821 2.3971
        1981    2,400       630 3.0895
        1982    2,513       773 3.2510

        Average                 2.7207
Data for the maturation method were identical to those used for the Skagit River with the exception of the age 5 harvest rate, which was fit using the technique previously described for the Skagit River.
        Age 5 Harvest Rate     =  .8319
        Age 4 Maturation Rate  =  .8468
        Age 3 Maturation Rate  =  .1500
        Age 2 Maturation Rate  =  .0141
For the ocean harvest rate method,
        E  =  492.3  -  (.58) * (563) / .58  =  286
Methods 1 and 2 gave similar results with Method 2 resulting in a slightly higher total harvest rate. The escapement resulting from Method 1 was consistent with tag code data from other Puget Sound areas given the low contribution rates of the Stillaguamish tag codes. Use of Method 3 resulted in an escapement which seemed too large given the data from tag codes in other Puget Sound regions.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Snohomish Wild Stock (Model Stock #17)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

No tag code data were available to model the distribution of the Snohomish natural stock. Tag codes from the Stillaguamish stock were chosen to represent the Snohomish based on the geographical proximity of the stocks. The average escapement and escapement goal for the Snohomish stock are given below.

                                Escpmnt          Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1979-81 1976-79

        Snohomish Summer        5,250           5,244   5,824
The escapement for the Snohomish stock was estimated using the terminal catch/escapement ratio.
        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1979      7,674   5,903 1.3000
        1980     11,130   6,460 1.7229
        1981      6,397   3,368 1.8993
        1982      4,724   4,379 1.0788

        Average                 1.5003
GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Washington Coastal Wild Stock (Model Stock #18)

[No infomation available at this time.]

Information On: Columbia River Upriver Brights Stock (Model Stock #19)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The majority of the Columbia River Upriver Brights (URB) production originates from natural and hatchery production areas in the main stem of the Columbia River between McNary and Priest Rapids Dams. The URB adult return has averaged about 117,000 since 1970. the present spawning escapement goal is 40,000 adults measured at the McNary Dam adult counting facility.

Historically, most of the ocean harvest of URB fall chinook occurred in British Columbia and Alaska. URB chinook was selected as a harvest rate indicator based on it's significant contribution to Canadian and Alaskan fisheries. This stock also represents a major production unit of Columbia River chinook. In addition, the URB fall chinook was one of the four original indicator stocks used in the multi-stock model for the 1984 Pacific Salmon Treaty negotiations.

        CWT Codes

BYBY    1976    631662

        1977    631741
                631745

GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Spring Creek Hatchery Stock (Model Stock #20)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Historically, the Spring Creek fall chinook group has been one of the major contributors to chinook fisheries on the Washington coast and in the Columbia River. The escapement goal is 8,200 adults to the Spring Creek hatchery. This stock primarily returns to the Columbia River as three years old.

The Spring Creek chinook stock was selected based on significant contributions to all west coast troll fisheries from Cape Falcon up to the north end of Vancouver Island. In addition, it represents a major production group from the Columbia River. This stock is one of the four original harvest rate indicator stocks used in the multi-stock model for the US-Canada negotiations.

        Spring Creek CWT Codes

        BY 77   055501
                055601
                055701
                056001
                056201

        BY 78   050433
                050434
                050444
                050446
The estimated CWT escapement (ESC) recoveries were expanded using estimated stray rates. The number of Spring Creek hatchery chinook straying below Bonneville dam are estimated from CWT recoveries at lower river facilities. The number of Spring Creek hatchery stray fish above Bonneville dam are estimated through run reconstruction, which uses catch, hatchery returns and Bonneville dam adult counts.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Lower Bonneville Hatchery Tule Fall (Model Stock #21)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Within the broad group of Lower River Hatchery (LRH) stocks, there are three different subunits identified as Willamette River, Cowlitz Hatchery and all other LRH facilities. The LRH adult return has averaged about 150,000 fish between 1970-1984. The composite LRH spawning escapement goal is 35,000 adults. The goal is based on hatchery brood stock requirements.

Based on CWT recoveries, LRH fall chinook appear to significantly contribute to Canadian fisheries. However, Cowlitz fall chinook demonstrate a more northerly catch distribution than other LRH stocks. Cowlitz hatchery fall and Bonneville hatchery tule fall chinook stocks were incorporated to improve accounting of fisheries contribution (for LRH chinook production), in the 1986 version of the model.

        Cowlitz Fall CWT Codes

        BY 77   631802
        BY 78   631942
        BY 79   632137
                632154

        Bonneville Tule Fall CWT Codes

        BY 76   091605
        BY 77   071656
        BY 78   071842
        BY 79   072157
                072163
GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Cowlitz Hatchery Tule Fall (Model Stock #22)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

Within the broad group of Lower River Hatchery (LRH) stocks, there are three different subunits identified as Willamette River, Cowlitz Hatchery and all other LRH facilities. The LRH adult return has averaged about 150,000 fish between 1970-1984. The composite LRH spawning escapement goal is 35,000 adults. The goal is based on hatchery brood stock requirements.

Based on CWT recoveries, LRH fall chinook appear to significantly contribute to Canadian fisheries. However, Cowlitz fall chinook demonstrate a more northerly catch distribution than other LRH stocks. Cowlitz hatchery fall and Bonneville hatchery tule fall chinook stocks were incorporated to improve accounting of fisheries contribution (for LRH chinook production), in the 1986 version of the model.

        Cowlitz Fall CWT Codes

        BY 77   631802
        BY 78   631942
        BY 79   632137
                632154

        Bonneville Tule Fall CWT Codes

        BY 76   091605
        BY 77   071656
        BY 78   071842
        BY 79   072157
                072163
GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Lewis River Wild Stock (Model Stock #23)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The lower Columbia River fall wild chinook adult returns have averaged 36,000 for the years 1970 through 1980. Approximately 85 percent of the adult escapement was to the north fork of the Lewis River. At present, there is no calculated escapement goal for Lewis River wild fall chinook. However, the 1970-1980 average was 10,000 adults, which is an approximate escapement target.

CWT recoveries for the North Lewis River wild stocks indicate that the majority of the harvest takes place in Alaska and British Columbia. The Lewis River wild chinook is the only Columbia River indicator stock that is not tagged at a hatchery facility. This stock was not represented in the 1984 version of the multi-stock model.

        BY 77   631611
                631618
                631619

        BY 78   631813
                631920
                631858
                631902
                631859
                632002
GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Willamette River Spring Stock (Model Stock #24)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The recent ten year average for terminal adult returns has been 66,300. The returning population is estimated to be composed of approximately 25 percent naturally spawning chinook. The current escapement goal is 30,000 fish at Willamette Falls. Only once in the past ten years has the current escapement goal not been achieved. Willamette spring chinook appear to have a far northerly distribution as demonstrated by coded-wire-tag (CWT) recoveries.

The stock was chosen as an indicator stock in the model based upon its significant contribution to Alaskan and Canadian fisheries. In addition, this stock was added to the model in order to represent lower Columbia River spring chinook stocks.

        BY 76   091621 through 091631
                091701 through 091703

        BY 77   071737
                071738
                071741
                071742

        BY 78   071925
                072042
                072047
                072049
                072053

        BY 79   072219
                072226
                072302
                072252
                072253
                072254
GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Spring Cowlitz Hatchery Stock (Model Stock #25)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The spring chinook that return to the Cowlitz and nearby Washington tributaries are dominated by hatchery production, although about 5 percent of the production spawns naturally. The Cowlitz spring stocks averaged 10.5 percent of the spring chinook return to the Columbia for the years 1970 through 1979. From 1980 to 1985, the Cowlitz spring stocks averaged 20.5 percent of the spring chinook returning to the Columbia. The adult spawning escapement goal is about 2,500, which is based on brood stock requirements.

This stock was selected as a harvest rate indicator stock based on its significant contribution to Canadian fisheries. This type of spring stock was not included in the 1984 version of the multi-stock model.

The 1977 brood year had a large enough number of tags released to confidently estimate the base period exploitation pattern. The other tag releases during the base period were either very small or experimental groups not representative of the facilities production.

        BY 77   631817
                631818
GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Information On: Columbia River Summer Stock (Model Stock #26)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Oregon Coastal Stocks (Model Stock #27)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

The Oregon coastal stock included in the model representS far northerly migrating production. Oregon stocks which remain within Washington, Oregon, and California fisheries are not included within the model.

                        Escpmnt           Avg. Escpmnt
Production Unit          Goal           1979-81 1975-78

Oregon Coastal Natural  45,000           69,733  64,600

Tag codes selected were from brood years 1976, 1977, and 1978.

Brood Year      1976    1977    1978
Brood Weight    1.000   1.102   2.078
Tag Code        091637  071643  071849
                091638  071644  071850
Information for each tag code on the return to the hatchery rack was provided by Ron Williams of the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. He also noted that studies conducted in the Salmon River in 1986 and 1987 indicated that the stray rate was approximately 3:1, and that the freshwater sport fishery (for which no recovery data was available) had a harvest rate of approximately 20 percent. To account for the unsampled returns, the rack return was multiplied by a factor of 4 and the freshwater sport catch was set equal to the observed rack return.

Escapement estimates were also supplied by Ron Williams.

Information On: Washington Coastal Wild Fall Stock (Model Stock #28)

Source: Chinook Technical Committee. 1988/89.

CWT releases during the 1977-79 brood year base period for Washington coastal chinook stocks are limited. Only the Quinault system had a program during this period which tagged sufficient numbers of fish to yield results that were judged suitable for modeling purposes. It was felt, however, that this stock could only represent the Quinault system and CWT results should not be extrapolated to represent other coastal stocks, primarily due to the introduction of non-native stocks to the system in the early 1970's.

                                Escpmnt         Avg. Escpmnt
        Production Unit         Goal            1980-81     

        Quinault Hatchery       5,000             2,350
The average escapement for 1980-81 was used rather than 1979-81 as escapement data for 1979 was not available.

The following tag codes were used to model the Quinault fall hatchery stock:

        Brood Year              1977    1978
        Catch                   218     1,180
        Brood Weight            5.4128  1.0000
        Tag Codes               050337  050338
                                050518
                                050519
Adjustments to escapement CWT recoveries are based on in-river catch to escapement ratios obtained from PFMC and QDNR records (PFMC Review of 1985 Fisheries; Table B-28 and personal communication from Delbert Boyer, QDNR (1/27/87).
                Net
        Year    Catch   Escpmnt Ratio

        1980       4.4      2.1 2.0952
        1981       5.3      2.6 2.0385
        1982       5.5      2.9 1.8966
        1983       4.4      2.2 2.0000

                        Mean    2.0076  =  2.0
To adjust for potential underestimation of escapement recoveries due to water flow problems at the Quinault National Fish Hatchery, we applied this 2:1 ratio to the age 3-5 Washington coastal net catch in order to obtain an estimate of escapement by age class. This ratio is based on the average catch: escapement ratio reported for fall chinook in the Quinault system during the period 1980-83 when adult recoveries of the above CWT groups occurred.

The Quinault stock, like most of the other chinook stocks on the Washington Coast, exhibits a far-northerly migration pattern and is harvested mainly in SE Alaska and Northern BC in addition to terminal area net fisheries.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Information On: Lyons Ferry Stock (Model Stock #29)

[No information available at this time.]

Information On: Mid-Columbia River Brights Stock (Model Stock #30)

[No information available at this time.]

GENERAL COMMENTS ON PUGET SOUND/WASHINGTON COASTAL STOCKS

Modifications to the 1986-87 version of the multi-stock model included a number of revisions to the input data for Puget Sound and Washington coastal stocks. The major modifications which were made are summarized below:

  1. The Puget Sound fall fingerling stock was separated into a natural and a hatchery component. This simplified the addition of new hatchery production and the interpretation of model output.
  2. A separate stock was created for production of hatchery and natural fall chinook from the Nooksack/Samish region. The Nooksack/Samish stock appears to have a different distribution than South Puget Sound and Hood Canal stocks. Separating it from the remainder of Puget Sound provided greater flexibility in modelling changes in production and survival.
  3. The Green River fall natural stock was included with the Puget Sound fall natural stock aggregate. The terminal run of the Green River stock has been near the escapement goal in recent years. The Green River natural stock was aggregated with other stocks to conserve space within the model.
  4. The estimated escapements for the Skagit summer stock, the Stillaguamish summer stock, and the Snohomish fall stock were modified to provide more realistic exploitation rates.
  5. Tag recovery data from Canadian and Alaska fisheries were updated for all stocks. Washington and Oregon fishery recoveries were updated for the Stillaguamish summer and Nooksack spring stocks.
Puget Sound and Washington coastal stocks included in the 1988-89 version of the model are listed below:

The Nooksack Spring, Skagit Summer, Stillaguamish Summer, and Snohomish Fall stocks were included in the model primarily to evaluate the effects of alternative management actions upon the rate of rebuilding. Other stocks were included primarily to provide realistic catch levels in model fisheries.

Puget Sound hatchery chinook releases are characterized by a diverse number of release times and sizes. Many of these production components were not tagged during the base period of the model. One approach to overcome this situation would be to identify individual production components within a stock and assign tag groups to these production components based on measurable characteristics of the population. Lacking well-defined criteria with which to accomplish this and wishing to minimize the number of assumptions involved in this analysis, we opted to pool CWT results from all representative tag groups within a brood year, i.e. simply treat individual experiments as if they were part of one large tag release. Cluster analysis indicated that releases within a production region had a similar pattern of distribution.

After combining tag groups within brood year, we weighted each brood year in order to give it equal representation. Our objective was to generate a composite or average picture of the stock's performance during the base period, discount annual harvest differences, and avoid reliance on extreme results. Weighting between brood years was accomplished by standardizing the catch level for each brood, i.e. scaling the total catch (excluding escapement) to some arbitrary level, in this case, maximum total brood year catch. In some instances, there was only one brood year available for a stock and this step was omitted.

Two further adjustments were necessary to transform the CWT recoveries into input data usable by the model. First, because CWT recoveries in the escapement are generally underestimated, we applied correction factors in the form of terminal net catch escapement ratios to estimate the expected escapement recoveries for a stock (catch and escapement data were obtained from the WDF run reconstruction dated 7/21/86). The total recoveries in the North Puget Sound Net and Other Puget Sound Net fisheries of tags from fish of age 3 through 5 were multiplied by the average catch/escapement ratio to obtain the expected escapement for the tag groups.

Second, the Puget Sound fall fingerling, Puget Sound fall natural, and Puget Sound yearling are stock aggregates which consist of a number of distinct stocks. For example, the Puget Sound yearling stock aggregate includes production from the Skagit River, the Snohomish River, South Puget Sound, and Hood Canal. Since the stock aggregate should reflect the relative abundance of each component, it was necessary to weight the CWT recovery estimates for each stock to obtain the correct mixture within the stock aggregate. To accomplish this, a scale factor was computed based on the ratio of total escapement to the CWT escapement estimates.

GENERAL COMMENTS ON COLUMBIA RIVER STOCKS

Chinook populations entering the Columbia River are divided by return timing into spring, summer and fall segments. The spring and fall returns are divided into management units on the basis of ocean distribution as well as spawning time and age at maturity.

The multi-stock model harvest rate indicator stocks, representing the Columbia River chinook populations, did not cover all segments. The summer segment and the upper river spring management unit were not represented due to insufficient numbers of coded wire tagged hatchery smolts released for these stocks. In most cases, tag codes were selected which had a release of at least 100,000 coded wire tags. All the Columbia River tag codes used in the model were representative of production and no experimental tag release groups were used.



Please direct questions or comments to:
web@cbr.washington.edu
Columbia Basin Research,
School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences,
University of Washington