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Natural Ocean Mortality
Non-fishing and fishing mortalities occur independently and at different times of the year. For most stocks, non-fishing mortality is composed entirely of natural ocean mortality and is assessed at the beginning of each year. For Columbia River stocks that spawn upriver from dams, additional non-fishing mortality (called pre-spawning mortality or inter-dam losses) is assessed after fishing mortality to account for losses between dams (Fig. 4.2).
Fig. 4.2 Assessment of mortalities during one year.

Natural ocean mortalities are age specific, but not stock specific. For example, age two fish from all stocks have the same natural ocean mortality, or survival, rate. Thus, at the start of each year, ocean run sizes for each cohort are updated as follows:
OcnRun(s,a) = Cohort(s,a)OcnSurvRt(a)
[4.1]
where
- OcnRun(s,a) = ocean run size of stock s, age a
- Cohort(s,a) = cohort size of stock s, age a at the start of the year
- OcnSurvRt(a) = natural ocean survival rate for age a.
The following description of natural mortality estimation procedures is taken from CTC (1988). Direct estimates of natural (non-catch) mortality for chinook salmon are lacking. The numbers used in the cohort analysis were chosen to conform to the numbers used in the Georgia strait virtual population analysis (Argue et al., 1982--spreadsheet version). Specifically, the argue paper used a natural mortality of 1.5% per month for ages three to five and 3% per month for age two. These values calculate to 31% and 17% per year for age two and ages three through five, respectively.
In 1982, when these cohort analysis procedures were begun (undocumented), it was decided to use stepped values of mortality by age. The values chosen are given in Table 4.1 The mean of the values used for ages three through five is 20% (similar to the 17% used in the Argue paper). The 40% continues the stepped progression.
Table 4.1 Natural ocean mortality and survival rates for ages 1-5.
| Age (a) |
OcnMortRt(a) |
OcnSurvRt(a) |
| 1 |
.5 |
.5 |
| 2 |
.4 |
.6 |
| 3 |
.3 |
.7 |
| 4 |
.2 |
.8 |
| 5 |
.1 |
.9 |
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CRiSP Harvest Manual, Chapter 4. Theory
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