W. Nicholas Beer
Susannah Iltis
James J. Anderson
Columbia Basin Research
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences
University of Washington
Box 358218
Seattle, Washington 98195
Prepared for:
U.S. Department of Energy
Bonneville Power Administration
Division of Fish and Wildlife
P.O. Box 3621
Portland, OR 97208
Project Number 1989-108-00
Contract Number 00039016
January 2009
Executive Summary
This report is a postseason analysis of the accuracy of the 2008 predictions from Escapement Forecaster / Adult Upstream Model. The effectiveness of these modeling efforts are compared to observations of passage and river conditions at the end of the season. A pattern matching routine forecasts total run-size and run timing (daily passage) by optimally correlating the shape of the current year’s cumulative passage (to date) with truncations of historical cumulative passage data. At the end of the season, for each stock at each observation site, we compute the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the day (j) on which the prediction was made. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was 5.7% and 2.2% for Spring and Fall Chinook, respectively. MADj for the spring and fall Chinook was always less than 30.4% and 10.5% (Maximum Absolute Daily Deviation) respectively.