Abstract
Flow augmentation and flow targets have been central programs in Columbia River salmon management for more than twenty years. Over this time, water requests have increased from 3.75 MAF in 1983 when the Water Budget was established (NPPC 1983) to between 13 and 16 MAF in the 1995 and 2000 NMFS Biological Opinions (NMFS 1995a; NMFS 2000a). Over the same period, the body of science on the effects of flow grew from a single graph between smolt survival and Snake River flow, to a body of information involving the tagging of a million smolts with survivals measured over the entire salmon life cycle. Whereas the growing body of scientific evidence indicates that variations in flow have no measurable effect on survival of juvenile salmon and steelhead through the mainstem of the Columbia and Snake, the fish managers continue with their policy of augmenting to these flows and have effectively halted further withdrawals of water from the mainstem of the system. In this paper I explore the history of the flow survival research and how political objectives produced a growing disconnect between the research and the water policy.