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2.4. Waiting time, Poisson process

We are often interested in the waiting time distribution f(t) of the time to an event or, similarly, the probability of an individual surviving to a particular time. In applications in following chapters, I am interested in the amount of time it takes a fish to pass a dam after it has reached it, and I consider the effect of adding mortality to the travel time model.

Waiting time distributions (or survival curves) are often formulated in terms of a hazard function, (t), which is the instantaneous failure rate at time t given survival through t. More precisely,

(2.18)

(Kalbfleisch and Prentiss, 1980). If we define as 1-F(t) (where F(t) is the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of f(t)), then

(2.19)

(Ross, 1983). The hazard function uniquely determines F(t):

. (2.20)

Also,

. (2.21)

The simplest case is when the hazard function is a constant, i.e. (t) = , and the waiting time probability density function is an exponential distribution

. (2.22)

This is equivalent to stating that a Poisson process with rate governs the waiting time to the next event (Ross, 1993).

The case where (t) is not a constant is referred to as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (Ross, 1993). Define the mean value function as

, (2.23)

and it can be shown that

, (2.24)

and

. (2.25)


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Spatial and Temporal Models of Migrating Juvenile Salmon with Applications.
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