Modeling

A central objective of SURPH is to characterize the survival probabilities (or, more generally, any SURPH probabilities), in terms of their relationship to:

• Each other across periods and/or populations via the main effects parameters.
• Measured covariates via the group covariate coefficients and the individual covariate coefficients.

The steps of modeling in SURPH are:

1. Set the link function and the parameter definitions for all SURPH probabilities, and encapsulate these settings by creating a model definition. This can be repeated to create multiple model definitions. Once created, the model definitions will appear in the Model Definition List of the SURPH Dialog Window.
2. Press the "Create Model(s)" button on the SURPH Dialog Window to estimate the parameters for all of the model definitions. The Model Definitions will disappear from the Model Definition List, and the corresponding Models will now appear in the Master Model List of the SURPH Dialog Window.
• Once a model is created, the Calculate Variance option can be selected.

After the desired model(s) have been created, the user can:

• Display the output for a selected model.
• Perform hypothesis testing.
• Examine the model diagnostics.

With release-recapture data, the user has the option of selecting P-Only modeling in order to modeling the capture probabilities as a initial process independent of modeling the survival probabilities.