SacPAS: Central Valley Prediction & Assessment of Salmon

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Egg Kill: Spawning to Emergence Geography References and Notes

Fish Model: Spawning to Migration

The SacPAS fish modeling process begins with egg deposition at the time of spawning. Development rate and survival can be modeled by various methods to determine fry emergence from the gravel. On this page you can control temperature inputs, redd/carcass/adult counts and survival details for egg development modeling. The outputs of this process become the input for the migration model, COMPASS. SacPAS Fish Model User's Manual.

Alternatively, you can skip emergence modeling and input fish directly into the migration model.


Temperature Data

Query database: Note: If the current year is selected, then from current day through November 30, forecasted values are from RAFT (NOAA/SWFSC, see References and Notes). All other future values are historical averages for the day of the year. Historical observations provided as a courtesy by CDEC.

Upload file:
Use column:
Units: Centigrade Farenheit
  • File should be a comma or tab delimited text file with at least 2 columns.
  • Lines are paired values. 1st column is Day-of-year. 2nd or other column is temperature. A header line is permitted but ignored.
Type values:
Units: Centigrade Farenheit
  • Inputs should be a comma or space delimited text in only 2 columns.
    A range of days with a common value can be expressed with two integers for days separated by ":", then the value. E.g. 1:200,12.5
    A gradient of temperatures across a range of days are similarly separated by ":". E.g. 1:200,12:14
  • Lines are paired values. 1st column is Day-of-year. 2nd column is temperature.Do not include a header line.

Spawning Data

Winter Chinook redds:  Combined counts from "Keswick Dam to A.C.I.D. Dam" and "A.C.I.D. Dam to Highway 44 Bridge" for Winter Run Chinook.

Winter Chinook carcasses   (Sacramento River)   Redd and Carcass database provided as a courtesy by CDFW and USBR. Data Disclaimer

Fall Chinook carcasses   (American River)   2011 not available.

Upload file:
Use column:
Units: Redds Adults or Carcasses.
  • File should be a comma or tab delimited text file with at least 2 columns.
  • Lines are paired values. 1st column is Day-of-year. 2nd or other column is redd, adult or carcass count. Header line is ignored.
Adult and Carcass Handling
Adults/carcasses
per redd:
  • This divides the count to get redds. Positive integer only. If you are uploading adult or carcass counts, this will adjust those counts to get the correct number of redds. E.g., if males and females are equal in the population and every female spawns, use 2. More importantly, redds are missed. In years 2004 to 2015, carcasses outnumbered redds by an average of 8.9 on the Sacramento River winter Chinook spawning grounds.
Timing offset:
days.
  • Integer days only. For carcasses use a negative value because spawning is prior to carcass detection. The mean offset for peak redd day to peak carcass day is -11.8 days over the period 2004 to 2015 on the Sacramento River winter Chinook spawning grounds (computed). Zeug et al. (2012) used 14 days. For adult counts (e.g., at a weir), use a positive offset because spawning is delayed until redds are built.

View egg growth models comparison

Egg Development model

Chinook Mechanistic (Beer and Anderson 1997): Egg mass mg. (Allowed Range: 100 ≤ x ≤ 400)
Chinook Empirical (Jensen et al. 1999)
Chinook Power law (Beacham/Murray 1990) Days = e10.404 - 2.043*log(T°C + 7.575)
Chinook Linear (Zeug et al. 2012): Target ATUs degree C days. (Allowed Range: 700 ≤ x ≤ 1200)
  • Default linear value 958 is centigrade equivalent of ATUs accumulated at the published daily rate: 0.00058 * TFarenheit - 0.018
  • Enter a value in either box to convert between ATU-Centigrade and ATU-Farenheit .
  • Farenheit ATUs are accumulated above 32. This calculation is NOT a temperature conversion tool.
Eggs per Redd Oppenheim (2014) (Allowed Range: 1000 ≤ x ≤ 6000)

Explore Egg/Fry survival models

Survival model

Constant survival (Oppenheim, 2014): Spawning to emergence: Fry to RBDD: (Allowed Ranges: 0.0 < x ≤ 1.0)
Survival modeling from spawning to fry passing RBDD.
Temperature-dependent mortality parameters.
TCrit = °F or  °C. Temperature below which there is no temperature dependent mortality.
bT = °F-1 or °C-1. Rate at which an increase of 1° increases daily mortality.
  • To remove the temperature related parameters from survival modeling, set TCrit to a high value (max: 80).
Use linear non-temperature-related mortality parameters. Sacramento River Temperature Task Group model (Martin et al. 2016)

μ0 = Density-independent base survival rate (i.e. maximum survival)
μ1 = Density-dependent survival per female spawner
Use beverton-holt non-temperature-related mortality parameters. (Martin et al. 2017)

S0 = Density-independent base survival rate (i.e. maximum survival)
K = Carrying capacity of female spawners.
  • To remove the density related parameters from survival modeling: Let μ0 = 1 and μ1 = 0 or S0 = 1 and K = extreme value (1000000).

Analysis and Results Display

Use redd or carcass value data set as is. Smooth redd or carcass values. See Notes
Date Range: 

Summary and graphics only. Summary, graphics and details.
Show histograms. Show cumulative.
      

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POC: web@cbr.washington.edu

SacPAS: Central Valley Prediction & Assessment of Salmon, University of Washington, Columbia Basin Research, www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/

Tuesday, 24-Apr-2018 12:35:50 PDT