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Sacramento River Temperature Target Analysis based on RPA I.2.4


Temperature Analysis: Target Analysis Graph || 2019 CVO Documents || Target Analysis and Exceedance Tables || DAT, Storage, Daily Max, 7DADM graphs || Data Table and Download || Methods, Target Criteria with SRTTG Documents and RPA Text

This page provides analysis, based on NMFS 2009 RPA I.2.4, of current and historical temperature conditions for fish using only observed data. Actual pre-season and in-season management decision processes are complex employing multiple sources of observed data, models, and forecasts. For further information, see the Target Analysis Criteria section.

View Analysis for: Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.
graph 2019 Sacramento River RPA I.2.4 Water Temp (F)
7DADM Temperature is not part of the original RPA I.2.4 wording (NMFS 2009). It is provided for informational purposes at the Keswick Reservoir and above Clear Creek sites.
Central Valley Operations Office, USBR: 2019 Northern CVP Water Temperature Report, with Sacramento River temperatures and flows, temperature control point, and Lake Shasta Isothermalbaths. File modified: March 21 2019 09:15:02.
Central Valley Operations Office, USBR: 2019 Shasta Temperature Control Device (TCD) Configuration with gate change operations, elevation, and temperatures. File modified: March 21 2019 09:15:08.
TCD Change Dates
Start Date End Date
03/14/2019 Current
03/07/2019 03/14/2019
03/07/2019 03/14/2019
02/28/2019 03/07/2019
02/25/2019 02/28/2019
02/19/2019 02/25/2019
02/11/2019 02/19/2019
01/03/2019 02/11/2019
01/03/2019 02/11/2019
01/03/2019 02/11/2019
01/02/2019 01/03/2019
12/10/2018 01/02/2019

2019 Temperature Target Analysis and Exceedance

Keswick (WQ)

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

Sacramento R Upstream of Hwy 44

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

Sacramento R abv Clear Ck

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

Balls Ferry Bridge

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

Jellys Ferry

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

Sacramento R at Bend Bridge

No 2019 data during target period, 5/15-10/31.

graph DAT all sites and Reservoir Data  graph Daily Max and 7DADM select sites

View Analysis for Another Year

Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.

2019 Sacramento River Temperature Target Analysis Data Table

download data table as CSV

Target Period Exceed
Date Source Shasta
Storage
(MAF)
Shasta
Outflow
(TCFS)
Keswick
Outflow
(TCFS)
DAT WTemp F 7DADM WTemp F Daily Max WTemp F
KWK SAC CCR BSF JLF BND KWK SAC CCR SAC CCR
Date Source Shasta
Storage
(MAF)
Shasta
Outflow
(TCFS)
Keswick
Outflow
(TCFS)
KWK
Daily Avg
WTemp F
SAC
Daily Avg
WTemp F
CCR
Daily Avg
WTemp F
BSF
Daily Avg
WTemp F
JLF
Daily Avg
WTemp F
BND
Daily Avg
WTemp F
KWK
7DADM
WTemp F
SAC
7DADM
WTemp F
CCR
7DADM
WTemp F
SAC
DailyMax
WTemp F
CCR
DailyMax
WTemp F
2019-03-20 CDEC 3.779 9.235 15.122 48.400 48.667 48.946 49.817 50.479 50.963 48.571 48.857 49.243 48.9 49.2
2019-03-19 CDEC 3.783 15.315 17.883 48.333 48.558 48.850 49.588 50.267 50.779 48.514 48.786 49.171 48.9 49.2
2019-03-18 CDEC 3.791 17.227 20.898 48.263 48.521 48.833 49.579 50.175 50.650 48.429 48.714 49.100 49.0 49.6
2019-03-17 CDEC 3.803 21.336 24.399 48.179 48.413 48.696 49.333 49.804 50.242 48.386 48.643 48.986 48.9 49.4
2019-03-16 CDEC 3.826 27.383 29.224 48.225 48.417 48.667 49.092 49.400 49.854 48.314 48.557 48.871 48.9 49.3
2019-03-15 CDEC 3.856 30.161 33.864 48.200 48.346 48.546 48.833 49.017 49.433 48.157 48.371 48.657 48.8 49.2
2019-03-14 CDEC 3.891 37.008 39.351 47.979 48.104 48.321 48.513 48.633 49.079 48.029 48.271 48.529 48.6 48.8
2019-03-13 CDEC 3.931 36.397 39.835 47.946 48.079 48.271 48.508 48.663 49.129 47.943 48.200 48.429 48.4 48.7
2019-03-12 CDEC 3.967 37.471 39.667 47.904 48.054 48.258 48.667 48.971 49.433 47.914 48.300 48.414 48.4 48.7
2019-03-11 CDEC 3.997 36.814 40.183 47.829 47.975 48.179 48.550 48.721 49.171 47.843 48.243 48.314 48.5 48.8
2019-03-10 CDEC 4.021 36.714 40.266 47.630 47.800 47.978 48.270 48.222 48.604 47.771 48.200 48.257 48.3 48.6
2019-03-09 CDEC 4.038 35.484 40.438 47.421 47.525 47.667 47.829 47.929 48.433 47.757 48.186 48.229 47.6 47.8
2019-03-08 CDEC 4.045 36.931 41.719 47.521 47.738 47.892 48.529 48.792 49.267 47.800 48.243 48.271 48.1 48.3
2019-03-07 CDEC 4.030 32.645 36.488 47.658 47.963 48.025 49.096 49.463 50.008 47.800 48.200 48.271 48.1 48.1
2019-03-06 CDEC 3.979 26.828 30.094 47.813 48.429 48.271 49.250 49.483 49.871 48.071 48.429 48.514 49.1 48.6
2019-03-05 CDEC 3.964 26.255 30.854 47.600 47.779 47.917 48.271 48.517 49.013 48.100 48.400 48.614 48.0 48.0
2019-03-04 CDEC 3.970 26.033 30.873 47.683 47.879 48.054 48.771 49.317 49.725 48.157 48.429 48.643 48.2 48.4
2019-03-03 CDEC 3.975 26.235 30.660 47.721 47.938 48.121 48.775 49.263   48.129 48.329 48.529 48.2 48.4
2019-03-02 CDEC 3.976 23.929 28.649 47.517 47.708 47.854 48.308 48.567   48.114 48.243 48.429 48.0 48.1
2019-03-01 CDEC 3.961 20.487 25.782 47.463 47.633 47.829 48.221 48.388   48.086 48.257 48.500 47.8 48.3
2019-02-28 CDEC 3.915 9.375 15.947 48.267 48.538 48.650 49.004 48.925   48.129 48.429 48.700 49.7 49.8
2019-02-27 CDEC 3.783 1.689 7.031 48.029 48.363 48.458 48.654 48.342   47.886 48.357 48.700 48.9 49.3
2019-02-26 CDEC 3.607 0.026 4.896 47.771 47.813 47.971 47.863 47.854   47.857 48.400 48.786 48.2 48.2
2019-02-25 CDEC 3.514 1.560 3.343 47.375 47.167 47.513 47.263 47.429   47.843 48.500 48.971 47.5 47.6
2019-02-24 CDEC 3.487 2.125 3.339 47.654 47.442 47.558 47.258 47.304   47.886 48.743 49.286 47.6 47.7
2019-02-23 CDEC 3.471 2.785 3.339 47.454 47.325 47.542 46.750 46.425   47.929 48.943 49.514 48.1 48.6
2019-02-22 CDEC 3.454 2.212 3.339 47.546 47.442 47.608 46.600 46.338   47.914 49.000 49.557 49.0 49.7
2019-02-21 CDEC 3.431 2.043 3.345 47.713 47.679 47.908 47.263 47.167   47.814 48.871 49.400 49.2 49.8
2019-02-20 CDEC 3.401 1.813 3.347 47.813 47.721 48.096 47.408 47.254   47.800 48.471 48.986 49.2 49.9
2019-02-19 CDEC 3.380 2.430 3.344 47.500 47.342 47.638 46.421 46.067   47.729 48.057 48.500 48.9 49.5
2019-02-18 CDEC 3.352 1.398 3.390 47.683 47.508 47.796 46.379 46.021   47.800 47.943 48.329 49.2 49.8
2019-02-17 CDEC 3.320 1.970 3.393 47.671 47.438 47.621 46.904 46.721   47.886 47.886 48.200 49.0 49.3
2019-02-16 CDEC 3.282 1.995 3.389 47.208 47.075 47.458 46.842 46.404   47.957 47.857 48.157 48.5 48.9
2019-02-15 CDEC 3.237 0.672 3.389 47.025 46.600 47.146 45.233 44.350   48.129 47.871 48.129 48.1 48.6
2019-02-14 CDEC 3.187 0.924 3.356 46.900 43.888 45.379 40.738 40.271   48.343 48.071 48.271 46.4 46.9
2019-02-13 CDEC 3.148 2.071 3.292 47.118 44.804 45.528 39.558 40.421   48.500 48.543 48.686 46.3 46.5
2019-02-12 CDEC 3.127 1.697 3.293 48.182 47.850 47.963 47.150 47.017   48.743 49.086 49.171 48.1 48.3
2019-02-11 CDEC 3.115 2.899 3.301 48.396 48.125 48.083 46.458 46.167   48.914 49.443 49.514 48.8 48.9
2019-02-10 CDEC 3.103 1.992 3.297 48.367 47.913 47.875 45.971 45.925   49.143 49.743 49.800 48.8 49.0
2019-02-09 CDEC 3.091 2.227 3.299 48.542 48.183 48.279 47.775 47.688   49.343 49.957 50.029 48.6 48.7
2019-02-08 CDEC 3.076 2.232 3.403 48.683 48.538 48.733 47.775 47.525   49.571 50.186 50.371 49.5 49.6
2019-02-07 CDEC 3.059 1.853 3.384 48.833 48.558 48.642 46.963 46.629   49.771 50.271 50.514 49.7 49.8
2019-02-06 CDEC 3.040 1.948 3.311 48.954 48.809 48.954 47.325 46.921   49.971 50.557 50.886 50.1 49.9
2019-02-05 CDEC 3.017 1.026 3.225 49.417 49.317 49.450 47.004 47.021   50.114 50.743 51.157 50.6 50.7
2019-02-04 CDEC 2.990 2.079 3.237 49.750 48.708 49.825 47.688 48.342   50.186 50.857 51.343 50.9 50.9
2019-02-03 CDEC 2.966 2.083 3.235 49.879 48.483 50.258 50.275 50.458   50.171 50.757 51.314 50.3 50.6
2019-02-02 CDEC 2.938 2.161 3.160 50.171 49.254 50.571 50.796 51.025   50.186 50.886 51.471 50.2 51.1
2019-02-01 CDEC 2.917 2.228 3.150 49.996 49.967 50.404 51.029 51.538   50.143 50.943 51.457 50.1 50.6
2019-01-31 CDEC 2.906 2.272 3.137 50.179 50.292 50.808 51.096 51.517   50.100 51.043 51.543 51.7 52.4
2019-01-30 CDEC 2.897 2.397 3.128 50.033 50.092 50.521 50.775 51.163   50.000 50.900 51.357 51.4 51.8
2019-01-29 CDEC 2.888 2.165 3.130 49.992 50.108 50.667 50.621 50.800   49.914 50.729 51.200 51.4 52.0
2019-01-28 CDEC 2.878 2.197 3.130 49.933 49.808 50.129 49.800 49.896   49.886 50.600 51.014 50.2 50.7
2019-01-27 CDEC 2.866 2.359 3.127 49.875 49.879 50.275 49.846 49.754   49.857 50.671 51.057 51.2 51.7
2019-01-26 CDEC 2.852 2.341 3.125 49.738 49.600 49.883 49.083 48.821   49.829 50.529 50.900 50.6 51.0
2019-01-25 CDEC 2.837 2.064 3.125 49.550 49.404 49.663 48.621 48.496   49.800 50.400 50.771 50.8 51.2
2019-01-24 CDEC 2.822 2.389 3.124 49.458 49.338 49.642 48.463 48.138   49.843 50.271 50.643 50.7 51.1
2019-01-23 CDEC 2.798 1.186 3.133 49.492 49.192 49.471 47.913 47.538 47.625 49.943 50.257 50.571 50.2 50.7
2019-01-22 CDEC 2.773 2.875 3.094 49.596 49.321 49.433 47.746 47.533   50.057 50.257 50.543 50.5 50.7
2019-01-21 CDEC 2.739 0.579 3.092 49.650 49.492 49.854 48.250 48.379 48.400 50.186 50.271 50.557 50.7 51.0
2019-01-20 CDEC 2.688 0.831 3.098 49.500 49.717 50.133 49.788 50.354 51.200 50.329 50.329 50.586 50.2 50.6
2019-01-19 CDEC 2.641 0.270 3.159 49.563 49.563 49.917 49.338 49.275 49.186 50.457 50.543 50.786 49.7 50.1
2019-01-18 CDEC 2.604 0.236 3.288 49.921 49.679 49.933 48.763 48.488 49.131 50.614 50.829 51.043 49.9 50.3
2019-01-17 CDEC 2.554 0.515 3.501 50.104 49.925 50.279 49.908 49.800 49.889 50.643 50.971 51.171 50.6 50.6
2019-01-16 CDEC 2.486 1.915 3.487 50.200 49.858 50.321 48.988 49.092 49.275 50.700 51.057 51.314 50.2 50.5
2019-01-15 CDEC 2.462 2.334 3.670 50.633 50.408 50.583 49.842 49.742 49.717 50.771 51.157 51.486 50.6 50.8
2019-01-14 CDEC 2.449 3.382 3.822 50.593 50.304 50.358 49.125 48.954 48.933 50.829 51.214 51.543 51.1 51.2
2019-01-13 CDEC 2.439 3.380 4.002 50.710 50.471 50.679 49.738 49.629 49.563 50.900 51.200 51.557 51.7 52.0
2019-01-12 CDEC 2.425 1.854 4.077 50.485 50.383 50.638 49.904 49.838 49.800 50.986 51.057 51.371 51.7 51.9
2019-01-11 CDEC 2.408 2.694 4.073 50.292 50.163 50.408 49.904 49.792 49.913 51.057 50.943 51.200 50.9 51.2
2019-01-10 CDEC 2.377 0.820 4.078 50.450 50.475 50.938 50.713 50.692 50.771 51.214 51.100 51.314 51.2 51.6
2019-01-09 CDEC 2.324 2.159 4.077 50.671 50.513 51.113 49.921 50.033 50.138 51.286 51.143 51.300 50.9 51.7
2019-01-08 CDEC 2.298 3.361 4.072 51.058 50.667 51.042 49.504 49.350 48.675 51.343 51.286 51.314 51.0 51.2
2019-01-07 CDEC 2.292 3.535 4.065 51.246 50.563 50.863 47.592 47.271 46.933 51.400 51.429 51.357 51.0 51.3
2019-01-06 CDEC 2.284 3.556 4.078 51.271 50.267 50.588 47.692 47.846 47.708       50.7 50.7
2019-01-05 CDEC 2.275 3.156 4.075 51.292 50.708 50.483 48.950 48.483 48.083       50.9 50.7
2019-01-04 CDEC 2.268 3.033 4.075 51.283 50.950 50.917 49.446 48.779 48.291       52.0 52.0
2019-01-03 CDEC 2.269 3.875 4.115 51.117 50.713 50.483 49.154 48.396 47.929       51.5 51.5
2019-01-02 CDEC 2.270 4.239 4.089 51.150 50.817 50.579 49.229 48.300 47.765       51.9 51.8
2019-01-01 CDEC 2.269 3.161 3.993 51.429 50.992 50.483 48.808 47.908 47.450       52.0 51.5

Data Methods, Notes, Citations

Data Methods

  1. Data Courtesy of CDEC
  2. Hourly data is retrieved from CDEC on a daily basis.
  3. Columbia Basin Research (CBR) QA/QC processes hourly data for outliers, false data (e.g., 32F measured by satellite), and data outside expected range of observation (e.g., 90F). Data loaded into CBR database.
  4. CBR calculates Daily Average values based on CBR cleaned hourly values.
  5. CBR calculates 7 Day Average of Daily Maximum (7DADM) values based on CBR cleaned hourly values.
  6. Query for daily average water temperature for selected year and query maximum hourly value per day for selected year.
  7. Examine daily average data for 56F, 57F and 58F exceedance during date periods as outlined in RPA I.2.4.

Target Analysis Criteria

Please refer to the Sacramento River Temperature Task Group (SRTTG) annual reports for details on within water year activities.

Target analysis and exceedance found on this page is based on criteria as described in NMFS 2009, pp601-603.

NMFS 2009. Biological and conference opinion on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. Long Beach, California. June 4. 844 pg. Plus appendices. Available online: www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/publications/Central_Valley/Water%20Operations/Operations,%20Criteria%20and%20Plan/nmfs_biological_and_conference_opinion_on_the_long-term_operations_of_the_cvp_and_swp.pdf

Direct quote from NMFS 2009, pp601-603.

Action 1.2.4 May 15 Through October Keswick Release Schedule (Summer Action)

Objective: To manage the cold water storage within Shasta Reservoir and make cold water releases from Shasta Reservoir to provide suitable habitat temperatures for winter-run, spring-run, CV steelhead, and Southern DPS of green sturgeon in the Sacramento River between Keswick Dam and Bend Bridge, while retaining sufficient carryover storage to manage for next year's cohorts. To the extent feasible, manage for suitable temperatures for naturally spawning fall-run.

Action: Reclamation shall develop and implement an annual Temperature Management Plan by May 15 to manage the cold water supply within Shasta Reservoir and make cold water releases from Shasta Reservoir and Spring Creek to provide suitable temperatures for listed species, and, when feasible, fall-run.

Reclamation shall manage operations to achieve daily average water temperatures in the Sacramento River between Keswick Dam and Bend Bridge as follows:

  1. Not in excess of 56°F at compliance locations between Balls Ferry and Bend Bridge from May 15 through September 30 for protection of winter-run, and not in excess of 56°F at the same compliance locations between Balls Ferry and Bend Bridge from October 1 through October 31 for protection of mainstem spring run, whenever possible.
  2. Reclamation shall operate to a final Temperature Management Plan starting May 15 and ending October 31.
  3. As part of the adaptive management process, and in coordination with NMFS, by March 2010, Reclamation shall fund an independent modeler to review these procedures and the recommendations of the Calfed Science Panel report on temperature management and recommend specific refinements to these procedures to achieve optimal temperature management, with due consideration of the Calfed Science panel's recommendations (Deas et al., 2009) regarding temperature management. Upon written concurrence of NMFS, refinements to the implementation procedures for this action suite, based on the independent contractor's report, may be adopted and implemented.

Implementation Procedures: Reclamation shall take the following steps to develop an annual Temperature Management plan:

  1. By April 15, Reclamation shall develop and submit to NMFS both 50 percent and 90 percent forecasts, consistent with its draft plan of summer operations. Reclamation shall model two complete runs for each forecast, one with an upstream TCP and one with a downstream TCP. Together, Reclamation will present four risk-management options to NMFS for review. EOS Storage will be projected for each of the four runs. If it is very wet or very dry, there will be fewer options to present to NMFS.
  2. NMFS will provide comments within five business days to Reclamation, recommending that Reclamation either: (1) operate to one of the options; or (2) develop an alternative operations plan necessary to meet reasonably attainable preferred TCP and EOS storage.
  3. Within five business days of receiving NMFS' recommendations, and based on NMFS' comments, Reclamation will develop an operations plan with specific monthly average Keswick releases to attain both TCP from May 15 through the EOS and EOS storage, and submit the plan to NMFS for concurrence.
  4. By May 15, Reclamation and NMFS shall jointly submit a final Temperature Management Plan to meet the SWRCB 90-5 requirements using the SRTTG. From May 15 through October 31, the SRTTG shall track implementation of this plan, and shall refine it based real-time information, including run timing, location of redds, air and surface water temperature modeling, and projected versus actual extent of the cold water pool. Any disagreement at the work group level regarding how to implement or modify the plan will be elevated to NMFS and resolved through WOMT standard operating procedures.

Rationale: Depending on hydrology and air temperature, from May through October, it is necessary to use the cold water pool in Shasta Reservoir to provide cold water releases to maintain suitable water temperatures for listed anadromous fish below Shasta. Without access to the cold water pool, suitable temperatures for egg incubation are not attainable. Preparation of an annual Temperature Management Plan allows Reclamation, in consultation with NMFS, to achieve optimal cold water management in a given year. Temperature management requires tradeoffs between extending the range of suitable habitat by moving the compliance point downstream from Balls Ferry, and conserving EOS storage. The storage level at the EOS is important to manage the risk of unsuitably warm water temperatures for winter-run in the following summer. Maintaining suitable temperatures in September and October is also important to minimize adverse effects of project operations to main stem Sacramento River spring-run. Fall-run, a non-listed species that is important as a prey base for Southern Resident Killer Whale, also benefits from suitable temperatures in the Fall.

Development of 2 to 4 options for temperature management, prior to finalizing a plan allows for meaningful discussion of appropriate risk management strategies in a given year, based on timely hydrologic and biological considerations. Important factors differ from year to year, and need to be considered in operations planning. They include the projected size of the winter-run year class (and thus the extent of habitat needed); timing and location of spawning and redds based on aerial surveys; the extent of the cold water pool, given air temperatures; and operation of the Temperature Control Device to provide optimal use of the cold water pool. Preparation of a draft plan also allows for iterative planning and feedback. Operations can be tailored each year to achieve the optimal approach to temperature management to maintain viable populations of anadromous fish, based on the best available information.

The Calfed Science Program peer review report on temperature management emphasized the importance of refining temperature management practices in the long term and included recommendations for doing so. The requirement to hire an independent contractor to recommend specific refinements to the procedures in this RPA responds to these recommendations.


Citation
Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington. (2019). SacPAS Sacramento River Temperature Target Analysis (RPA I.2.4). Available from http://www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/tc_sacramento_RPAI.2.4.html
Generated: 21 Mar 2019 09:15:14 PDT. www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/.

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