Adult Passage Predictions based on Visual Counts
for Combined Columbia and Snake
River Stocks
New for the 2008 adult spring Chinook migratory season,
Peak Arrival & Run Size predictions for spring Chinook at Bonneville
Dam. These
predictions begin with a preseason prediction of run timing from a
Genetics and Environment Timing model and a preseason run-size
prediction based on the previous year's Jack returns.
The daily, inseason methods to simultaneously estimate distribution parameters from the observations-to-date are under
development. These methods include use of up-to-date environmental
conditions, historical bounds on parameters, and the mathematical
properties of the gaussian distribution. The
complete run of Chinook in the Columbia River is the sum of three
sub-runs—spring, summer and fall—each well characterized by a gaussian
distribution. A manuscript detailing the Genetics and Environment Timing model
is in review (Anderson and Beer, submitted to
Ecological Applications). For more information, please
refer to
Run timing of adult Chinook
salmon passing Bonneville dam on the Columbia River.
For information on the preseason forecasts and methods, please refer to Columbia River preseason adult spring Chinook run size and arrival timing predictions, 2008.
Since 2005, the Daily Run Size & Passage Prediction (Date-based) is for the period March 15 - June 15 to best match the Columbia River Fisheries (CRM) spring management period. The CRM 2008 Spring Chinook Forecast is 269300 fish.
Starting with the 2005 migration season, the Passage Predictions are available for four stocks: Snake River, Upper Columbia River, Lower Columbia River, and Hanford Reach/Yakima. Percent of the run arriving at Bonneville
Dam is based on historic run timing and observed visual count data (courtesy of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NWD). Stock separation of the run at Bonneville is based on stock composition, reach conversion rates, and run-timing of selected PIT-tagged stocks for all available years of adult detections at PIT Tag observation sites.
- Snake River: Predicted percent passage of Adult Chinook through the projects on the Columbia mainstem
and the lower Snake River. Arrivals to the
upstream dams (The Dalles, John Day, McNary, Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental,
Little Goose, and Lower Granite) are forecast with the Adult Upstream
Model.
- Upper Columbia River: Predicted percent passage of Adult Chinook through the projects on the Columbia River with destination above Priest Rapids Dam. Arrivals to the upstream dams (The Dalles, John Day, McNary, Priest Rapids, Wanapum, Rock Island, Rocky Reach, Wells) are forecast with the Adult Upstream Model.
- Lower Columbia River: Predicted percent passage of Adult Chinook through the projects on the Lower Columbia River with destination above Bonneville but not above McNary Dam. Arrivals to the upstream dams (The Dalles, John Day) are forecast with the Adult Upstream Model.
- Hanford Reach/Yakima: Predicted percent passage of Adult Chinook through the projects on the Columbia River with destination above McNary Dam but not above Priest Rapids Dam, these include Yakima and Hanford Reach stocks. Arrivals to the
upstream dams (The Dalles, John Day, McNary) are forecast with the Adult Upstream
Model.
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Please direct questions or comments to:
web@cbr.washington.edu
Columbia Basin Research,
School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences,
University of Washington
28 April 2008