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Lower American Temperature Target Analysis based on RPA II.2


This page provides analysis, based on NMFS 2009 RPA II.2, of current and historical temperature conditions for fish using only observed data. Actual pre-season and in-season management decision processes are complex employing multiple sources of observed data, models, and forecasts. For further information, see the Target Analysis Criteria section.

View Analysis for: Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.
graph 2018 American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) Water Temp (F)

2018 Temperature Target Analysis and Exceedance

Steelhead
Life Stage
Life Stage
Dates
RPA
Criterion
Possible
Days
Data
Days
Total Period Analyzed Criteria Exceedance
Average
Temperature
Days in
Target
Pct Days
Target
Days Pct of
Total Days
First Day Last Day
Juvenile Rearing (3 days) 5/15-10/31 Below 65F 170 170 63.6F 112 65.9% 58 34.1% 07/17 10/04
Juvenile Rearing (1 day) 5/15-10/31 Below 68F 170 170 63.6F 170 100.0% 0 0.0%    

Jump to Detail Data

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Color Vision Deficiency (CVD) colors
Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.

Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History based on RPA II.2

graph Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History

2018 Lower American Temperature Target Analysis Data Table for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB), 5/15-10/31

Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
2018 12 31 49.69    
2018 12 30 50.06    
2018 12 29 49.77    
2018 12 28 49.82    
2018 12 27 50.62    
2018 12 26 51.14    
2018 12 25 52.15    
2018 12 24 52.32    
2018 12 23 52.44    
2018 12 22 52.26    
2018 12 21 53.09    
2018 12 20 52.96    
2018 12 19 53.38    
2018 12 18 52.81    
2018 12 17 53.20    
2018 12 16 52.15    
2018 12 15 53.07    
2018 12 14 52.48    
2018 12 13 52.72    
2018 12 12 53.13    
2018 12 11 53.26    
2018 12 10 53.63    
2018 12 09 53.36    
2018 12 08 53.76    
2018 12 07 54.08    
2018 12 06 54.88    
2018 12 05 54.62    
2018 12 04 54.08    
2018 12 03 54.04    
2018 12 02 54.54    
2018 12 01 55.08    
2018 11 30 56.09    
2018 11 29 56.04    
2018 11 28 56.86    
2018 11 27 56.33    
2018 11 26 56.48    
2018 11 25 56.79    
2018 11 24 56.69    
2018 11 23 56.31    
2018 11 22 56.51    
2018 11 21 55.49    
2018 11 20 55.74    
2018 11 19 55.72    
2018 11 18 55.95    
2018 11 17 55.89    
2018 11 16 55.64    
2018 11 15 55.63    
2018 11 14 55.93    
2018 11 13 56.43    
2018 11 12 56.56    
2018 11 11 56.44    
2018 11 10 56.44    
2018 11 09 56.78    
2018 11 08 57.62    
2018 11 07 58.60    
2018 11 06 59.42    
2018 11 05 59.98    
2018 11 04 60.50    
2018 11 03 60.54    
2018 11 02 61.17    
2018 11 01 61.73    
2018 10 31 61.61    
2018 10 30 62.00    
2018 10 29 62.95    
2018 10 28 63.79    
2018 10 27 63.70    
2018 10 26 63.39    
2018 10 25 62.91    
2018 10 24 62.75    
2018 10 23 63.05    
2018 10 22 63.63    
2018 10 21 63.65    
2018 10 20 63.78    
2018 10 19 63.59    
2018 10 18 63.37    
2018 10 17 63.29    
2018 10 16 63.11    
2018 10 15 63.03    
2018 10 14 63.93    
2018 10 13 64.47    
2018 10 12 64.63    
2018 10 11 64.74    
2018 10 10 64.61    
2018 10 09 64.74    
2018 10 08 64.37    
2018 10 07 64.45    
2018 10 06 65.56    
2018 10 05 64.70    
2018 10 04 65.45 Exceed  
2018 10 03 65.64 Exceed  
2018 10 02 65.59 Exceed  
2018 10 01 65.52    
2018 09 30 65.21    
2018 09 29 64.02    
2018 09 28 64.72    
2018 09 27 65.19    
2018 09 26 64.87    
2018 09 25 64.99    
2018 09 24 64.80    
2018 09 23 64.96    
2018 09 22 65.06 Exceed  
2018 09 21 65.12    
2018 09 20 65.16    
2018 09 19 64.88    
2018 09 18 64.43    
2018 09 17 64.30    
2018 09 16 64.04    
2018 09 15 64.46    
2018 09 14 64.39    
2018 09 13 64.53    
2018 09 12 64.17    
2018 09 11 65.68 Exceed  
2018 09 10 65.94 Exceed  
2018 09 09 65.66 Exceed  
2018 09 08 65.86 Exceed  
2018 09 07 65.92 Exceed  
2018 09 06 65.14 Exceed  
2018 09 05 65.53 Exceed  
2018 09 04 65.30 Exceed  
2018 09 03 65.86 Exceed  
2018 09 02 66.32 Exceed  
2018 09 01 66.58 Exceed  
2018 08 31 66.32 Exceed  
2018 08 30 65.88 Exceed  
2018 08 29 66.13 Exceed  
2018 08 28 66.23 Exceed  
2018 08 27 66.06 Exceed  
2018 08 26 66.16 Exceed  
2018 08 25 65.96 Exceed  
2018 08 24 65.54 Exceed  
2018 08 23 65.85 Exceed  
2018 08 22 66.01 Exceed  
2018 08 21 66.26 Exceed  
2018 08 20 66.90 Exceed  
2018 08 19 67.02 Exceed  
2018 08 18 66.96 Exceed  
2018 08 17 66.51 Exceed  
2018 08 16 65.88 Exceed  
2018 08 15 65.41 Exceed  
2018 08 14 65.02 Exceed  
2018 08 13 65.19    
2018 08 12 65.06    
2018 08 11 64.89    
2018 08 10 65.04 Exceed  
2018 08 09 65.82 Exceed  
2018 08 08 65.43 Exceed  
2018 08 07 65.44 Exceed  
2018 08 06 65.01 Exceed  
2018 08 05 65.57 Exceed  
2018 08 04 65.64 Exceed  
2018 08 03 65.38 Exceed  
2018 08 02 65.09 Exceed  
2018 08 01 65.28 Exceed  
2018 07 31 65.81 Exceed  
2018 07 30 65.31 Exceed  
2018 07 29 65.17 Exceed  
2018 07 28 65.60 Exceed  
2018 07 27 65.81 Exceed  
2018 07 26 66.53 Exceed  
2018 07 25 65.48 Exceed  
2018 07 24 66.38 Exceed  
2018 07 23 66.54 Exceed  
2018 07 22 66.46 Exceed  
2018 07 21 65.40 Exceed  
2018 07 20 65.32 Exceed  
2018 07 19 65.41 Exceed  
2018 07 18 65.54 Exceed  
2018 07 17 65.17 Exceed  
2018 07 16 65.36    
2018 07 15 65.16    
2018 07 14 64.55    
2018 07 13 64.54    
2018 07 12 65.46    
2018 07 11 65.28    
2018 07 10 64.92    
2018 07 09 64.51    
2018 07 08 64.47    
2018 07 07 64.10    
2018 07 06 63.54    
2018 07 05 63.18    
2018 07 04 63.04    
2018 07 03 63.28    
2018 07 02 63.22    
2018 07 01 63.78    
2018 06 30 63.60    
2018 06 29 62.95    
2018 06 28 62.53    
2018 06 27 62.60    
2018 06 26 62.66    
2018 06 25 62.26    
2018 06 24 62.90    
2018 06 23 62.66    
2018 06 22 62.12    
2018 06 21 61.86    
2018 06 20 61.44    
2018 06 19 61.42    
2018 06 18 60.87    
2018 06 17 60.31    
2018 06 16 60.80    
2018 06 15 61.04    
2018 06 14 60.65    
2018 06 13 60.69    
2018 06 12 60.36    
2018 06 11 59.79    
2018 06 10 59.21    
2018 06 09 59.59    
2018 06 08 59.69    
2018 06 07 59.41    
2018 06 06 59.05    
2018 06 05 59.20    
2018 06 04 59.38    
2018 06 03 59.48    
2018 06 02 59.39    
2018 06 01 58.40    
2018 05 31 57.78    
2018 05 30 58.03    
2018 05 29 59.16    
2018 05 28 58.60    
2018 05 27 57.96    
2018 05 26 57.42    
2018 05 25 57.32    
2018 05 24 58.86    
2018 05 23 59.03    
2018 05 22 60.38    
2018 05 21 60.18    
2018 05 20 59.40    
2018 05 19 59.77    
2018 05 18 59.46    
2018 05 17 59.14    
2018 05 16 57.76    
2018 05 15 58.97    
2018 05 14 58.34    
2018 05 13 58.00    
2018 05 12 57.75    
2018 05 11 58.04    
2018 05 10 59.21    
2018 05 09 59.39    
2018 05 08 59.42    
2018 05 07 58.23    
2018 05 06 57.43    
2018 05 05 57.84    
2018 05 04 58.21    
2018 05 03 57.71    
2018 05 02 57.55    
2018 05 01 56.67    
2018 04 30 55.83    
2018 04 29 55.73    
2018 04 28 55.63    
2018 04 27 56.32    
2018 04 26 56.80    
2018 04 25 56.72    
2018 04 24 56.98    
2018 04 23 56.88    
2018 04 22 56.42    
2018 04 21 55.63    
2018 04 20 54.73    
2018 04 19 53.57    
2018 04 18 52.99    
2018 04 17 51.95    
2018 04 16 51.92    
2018 04 15 53.80    
2018 04 14 54.28    
2018 04 13 53.02    
2018 04 12 51.61    
2018 04 11 52.32    
2018 04 10 52.95    
2018 04 09 53.48    
2018 04 08 52.33    
2018 04 07 51.49    
2018 04 06 51.62    
2018 04 05 51.48    
2018 04 04 51.94    
2018 04 03 51.80    
2018 04 02 51.98    
2018 04 01 52.17    
2018 03 31 52.08    
2018 03 30 51.82    
2018 03 29 51.68    
2018 03 28 50.94    
2018 03 27 50.89    
2018 03 26 50.35    
2018 03 25 49.76    
2018 03 24 50.60    
2018 03 23 51.46    
2018 03 22 52.07    
2018 03 21 52.29    
2018 03 20 52.05    
2018 03 19 52.48    
2018 03 18 51.55    
2018 03 17 51.90    
2018 03 16 51.76    
2018 03 15 51.51    
2018 03 14 52.63    
2018 03 13 53.92    
2018 03 12 53.98    
2018 03 11 52.91    
2018 03 10 52.30    
2018 03 09 53.58    
2018 03 08 53.26    
2018 03 07 52.06    
2018 03 06 51.45    
2018 03 05 50.69    
2018 03 04 49.96    
2018 03 03 49.46    
2018 03 02 49.30    
2018 03 01 50.05    
2018 02 28 49.87    
2018 02 27 49.92    
2018 02 26 49.96    
2018 02 25 50.74    
2018 02 24 49.81    
2018 02 23 49.98    
2018 02 22 50.01    
2018 02 21 50.10    
2018 02 20 50.11    
2018 02 19 50.81    
2018 02 18 51.83    
2018 02 17 51.53    
2018 02 16 51.15    
2018 02 15 50.98    
2018 02 14 50.67    
2018 02 13 50.78    
2018 02 12 50.96    
2018 02 11 50.57    
2018 02 10 51.41    
2018 02 09 51.24    
2018 02 08 51.18    
2018 02 07 51.19    
2018 02 06 51.00    
2018 02 05 51.14    
2018 02 04 51.10    
2018 02 03 51.13    
2018 02 02 51.13    
2018 02 01 50.86    
2018 01 31 50.38    
2018 01 30 50.45    
2018 01 29 50.35    
2018 01 28 50.61    
2018 01 27 50.44    
2018 01 26 50.02    
2018 01 25 50.34    
2018 01 24 50.30    
2018 01 23 51.09    
2018 01 22 50.40    
2018 01 21 50.35    
2018 01 20 50.97    
2018 01 19 51.54    
2018 01 18 51.27    
2018 01 17 51.10    
2018 01 16 51.11    
2018 01 15 51.03    
2018 01 14 51.50    
2018 01 13 51.35    
2018 01 12 50.99    
2018 01 11 51.72    
2018 01 10 52.19    
2018 01 09 52.10    
2018 01 08 51.22    
2018 01 07 50.73    
2018 01 06 52.10    
2018 01 05 51.70    
2018 01 04 51.63    
2018 01 03 50.75    
2018 01 02 50.68    
2018 01 01 50.97    

Data Methods, Notes, Citations

Data Methods

  1. Data Courtesy of CDEC
  2. Hourly data for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) is retrieved from CDEC on a daily basis.
  3. Columbia Basin Research (CBR) QA/QC process on AWB hourly data for outliers, false data (e.g., 32F measured by satellite), and data outside expected range of observation (e.g., 90F). Data loaded into CBR database.
  4. CBR calculates Daily Average values based on CBR cleaned hourly values.
  5. Query for daily average water temperature for selected year.
  6. Examine daily average data record for running 3 days for 65F exceedance. Three day exceedance is assigned to third date.
  7. Examine daily average data record for 1 day for 68F exceedance.

Target Analysis Criteria

Please refer to the American River Group (ARG) Annual Report of Activities for details on within water year activities.

Target analysis and exceedance found on this page is based on criteria as described in NMFS 2009, pp614-5.

NMFS 2009. Biological and conference opinion on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. Long Beach, California. June 4. 844 pg. Plus appendices. Available online: www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/publications/Central_Valley/Water%20Operations/Operations,%20Criteria%20and%20Plan/nmfs_biological_and_conference_opinion_on_the_long-term_operations_of_the_cvp_and_swp.pdf

Direct quote from NMFS 2009, pp 614-615.

Action II.2. Lower American River Temperature Management

Objective: Maintain suitable temperatures to support over-summer rearing of juvenile steelhead in the lower American River.

Action: Each year, Reclamation shall prepare a draft Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan based on forecasted conditions and submit the draft Plan to NMFS for review by May 1 of each year. The information provided in the Operations Forecast will be used in the development of the Temperature Plan. The draft plan shall contain: (1) forecasts of hydrology and storage; (2) a modeling run or runs, using these forecasts, demonstrating that the temperature compliance point can be attained (see Coldwater Management Pool Model approach in Appendix 2-D); (3) a plan of operation based on this modeling run that demonstrates that all other non-discretionary requirements are met; and (4) allocations for discretionary deliveries that conform to the plan of operation. Reclamation shall use an iterative approach, varying proposed operations, with the objective to attain the temperature compliance point at Watt Avenue Bridge. Within ten calendar days of receiving the draft Temperature Plan, NMFS will provide a written review of this plan for the purpose of determining whether requirements in this Opinion are likely to be met. Reclamation shall produce a final plan prior to May 15 deliveries and implement the plan upon finalization. Reclamation may update the plan every month based on hydrology and must seek NMFS' concurrence on proposed deviations from the plan that may reduce the likelihood that the temperature objective will be met.

Temperature Requirement: Reclamation shall manage the Folsom/Nimbus Dam complex and the water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam to maintain a daily average water temperature of 65°F or lower at Watt Avenue Bridge from May 15 through October 31, to provide suitable conditions for juvenile steelhead rearing in the lower American River. If this temperature is exceeded for three consecutive days, or is exceeded by more than 3°F for a single day, Reclamation shall notify NMFS in writing and will convene the ARG to make recommendations regarding potential cold water management alternatives to improve water temperature conditions for fish, including potential power bypasses. If there is a lack of consensus on actions to be taken, the ARG shall advise NMFS and be elevated through the WOMT standard operating procedures.

Exception: When preparing the Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan, Reclamation may submit to NMFS a written determination that, after taking all actions within its authorities, it is unlikely to meet the above temperature requirement. This determination must be supported by specific iterative modeling techniques that vary allocations and delivery schedules such as application of the Coldwater Management Pool model (see Appendix 2-D). In the event that Reclamation determines that other nondiscretionary requirements (e.g., D-1641 or requirements of the USFWS' Delta smelt biological opinion) conflict with attainment of the temperature requirement, Reclamation will convene the ARG to obtain recommendations. If consensus cannot be achieved within the ARG, the ARG shall advise NMFS, and NMFS will make a recommendation to the WOMT, per standard operating procedures.

During the May 15 to October 31 period, when the 65°F temperature requirement cannot be met because of limited cold water availability in Folsom Reservoir, then the target daily average water temperature at Watt Avenue may be increased incrementally (i.e., no more than one degree Fahrenheit every 12 hours) to as high as 68°F.

The priority for use of the lowest water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam shall be to achieve the water temperature requirement for steelhead, and thereafter may also be used to provide cold water for fall-run spawning.

Rationale: As demonstrated in section 6.4 of this Opinion, steelhead are frequently exposed to water temperatures warmer than required for juvenile rearing, resulting in reduced fitness as is evident through the expression of visible thermal stress symptoms (i.e., bacterial inflammations). This thermal stress decreases steelhead immune system function and increases steelhead vulnerability to other sources of sub-lethal and lethal effects such as disease and predation. Monitoring of juvenile steelhead conducted by CDFG showed that bacterial inflammation was prevalent in steelhead throughout the river and the frequency of its occurrence increased as the duration of exposure to water temperatures over 65°F increased. The 65°F or lower daily average water temperature target was identified based on CDFG's monitoring as well as published scientific literature. Based on past convention of the ARG, the temperature compliance point is maintained at Watt Avenue Bridge, even though suitable rearing habitat is between Watt Avenue and Nimbus Dam.


Citation
Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington. (2019). SacPAS Lower American Temperature Target Analysis (RPA II.2). Available from http://www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/tc_american_RPAII.2.html
Generated: 19 Jan 2019 06:45:02 PST. www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/.

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SacPAS: Central Valley Prediction & Assessment of Salmon, University of Washington, Columbia Basin Research, www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/