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Lower American Temperature Target Analysis based on RPA II.2


This page provides analysis, based on NMFS 2009 RPA II.2, of current and historical temperature conditions for fish using only observed data. Actual pre-season and in-season management decision processes are complex employing multiple sources of observed data, models, and forecasts. For further information, see the Target Analysis Criteria section.

View Analysis for: Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.
graph 2019 American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) Water Temp (F)

2019 Temperature Target Analysis and Exceedance

Steelhead
Life Stage
Life Stage
Dates
RPA
Criterion
Possible
Days
Data
Days
Total Period Analyzed Criteria Exceedance
Average
Temperature
Days in
Target
Pct Days
Target
Days Pct of
Total Days
First Day Last Day
Juvenile Rearing (3 days) 5/15-10/31 Below 65F 170 31 56.2F 31 18.2% 0 0.0%    
Juvenile Rearing (1 day) 5/15-10/31 Below 68F 170 31 56.2F 31 18.2% 0 0.0%    

Jump to Detail Data

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Color Vision Deficiency (CVD) colors
Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.

Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History based on RPA II.2

graph Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History

2019 Lower American Temperature Target Analysis Data Table for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB), 5/15-10/31

Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
2019 06 14 57.93    
2019 06 13 58.09    
2019 06 12 58.49    
2019 06 11 58.89    
2019 06 10 58.85    
2019 06 09 58.67    
2019 06 08 58.00    
2019 06 07 56.76    
2019 06 06 57.18    
2019 06 05 56.82    
2019 06 04 55.98    
2019 06 03 55.34    
2019 06 02 55.22    
2019 06 01 56.25    
2019 05 31 56.38    
2019 05 30 56.31    
2019 05 29 56.15    
2019 05 28 56.04    
2019 05 27 54.62    
2019 05 26 54.71    
2019 05 25 55.89    
2019 05 24 56.26    
2019 05 23 56.48    
2019 05 22 54.97    
2019 05 21 54.74    
2019 05 20 54.89    
2019 05 19 54.68    
2019 05 18 55.02    
2019 05 17 54.51    
2019 05 16 54.68    
2019 05 15 54.82    
2019 05 14 55.22    
2019 05 13 55.41    
2019 05 12 55.58    
2019 05 11 56.02    
2019 05 10 55.34    
2019 05 09 55.30    
2019 05 08 56.14    
2019 05 07 54.78    
2019 05 06 54.04    
2019 05 05 54.73    
2019 05 04 54.87    
2019 05 03 54.70    
2019 05 02 54.84    
2019 05 01 54.08    
2019 04 30 53.90    
2019 04 29 54.50    
2019 04 28 54.45    
2019 04 27 54.69    
2019 04 26 54.92    
2019 04 25 55.38    
2019 04 24 55.25    
2019 04 23 55.28    
2019 04 22 54.42    
2019 04 21 52.67    
2019 04 20 53.73    
2019 04 19 54.20    
2019 04 18 53.94    
2019 04 17 53.28    
2019 04 16 51.88    
2019 04 15 51.39    
2019 04 14 53.20    
2019 04 13 53.30    
2019 04 12 52.79    
2019 04 11 52.94    
2019 04 10 52.22    
2019 04 09 51.80    
2019 04 08 52.32    
2019 04 07 52.11    
2019 04 06 51.13    
2019 04 05 50.84    
2019 04 04 50.53    
2019 04 03 51.07    
2019 04 02 51.17    
2019 04 01 51.51    
2019 03 31 51.83    
2019 03 30 51.19    
2019 03 29 50.13    
2019 03 28 49.98    
2019 03 27 50.24    
2019 03 26 49.97    
2019 03 25 49.47    
2019 03 24 49.98    
2019 03 23 49.76    
2019 03 22 49.16    
2019 03 21 49.30    
2019 03 20 49.54    
2019 03 19 49.99    
2019 03 18 50.06    
2019 03 17 49.86    
2019 03 16 49.49    
2019 03 15 49.16    
2019 03 14 48.87    
2019 03 13 48.58    
2019 03 12 48.94    
2019 03 11 48.68    
2019 03 10 48.28    
2019 03 09 47.68    
2019 03 08 48.03    
2019 03 07 47.68    
2019 03 06 47.96    
2019 03 05 47.50    
2019 03 04 47.60    
2019 03 03 47.61    
2019 03 02 47.16    
2019 03 01 46.97    
2019 02 28 46.80    
2019 02 27 46.81    
2019 02 26 46.56    
2019 02 25 46.63    
2019 02 24 46.91    
2019 02 23 46.75    
2019 02 22 46.93    
2019 02 21 46.94    
2019 02 20 47.14    
2019 02 19 47.18    
2019 02 18 47.11    
2019 02 17 47.11    
2019 02 16 47.49    
2019 02 15 47.42    
2019 02 14 48.16    
2019 02 13 47.75    
2019 02 12 47.46    
2019 02 11 47.39    
2019 02 10 47.75    
2019 02 09 48.22    
2019 02 08 48.31    
2019 02 07 48.04    
2019 02 06 48.48    
2019 02 05 48.88    
2019 02 04 49.60    
2019 02 03 50.49    
2019 02 02 51.08    
2019 02 01 50.60    
2019 01 31 50.87    
2019 01 30 50.60    
2019 01 29 50.57    
2019 01 28 50.23    
2019 01 27 50.02    
2019 01 26 49.50    
2019 01 25 49.58    
2019 01 24 49.46    
2019 01 23 49.59    
2019 01 22 49.83    
2019 01 21 50.56    
2019 01 20 51.51    
2019 01 19 51.84    
2019 01 18 50.52    
2019 01 17 50.64    
2019 01 16 49.79    
2019 01 15 49.17    
2019 01 14 49.15    
2019 01 13 49.87    
2019 01 12 50.53    
2019 01 11 51.13    
2019 01 10 50.86    
2019 01 09 50.74    
2019 01 08 49.68    
2019 01 07 49.75    
2019 01 06 48.85    
2019 01 05 48.64    
2019 01 04 49.08    
2019 01 03 48.91    
2019 01 02 48.86    
2019 01 01 48.89    

Data Methods, Notes, Citations

Data Methods

  1. Data Courtesy of CDEC
  2. Hourly data for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) is retrieved from CDEC on a daily basis.
  3. Columbia Basin Research (CBR) QA/QC process on AWB hourly data for outliers, false data (e.g., 32F measured by satellite), and data outside expected range of observation (e.g., 90F). Data loaded into CBR database.
  4. CBR calculates Daily Average values based on CBR cleaned hourly values.
  5. Query for daily average water temperature for selected year.
  6. Examine daily average data record for running 3 days for 65F exceedance. Three day exceedance is assigned to third date.
  7. Examine daily average data record for 1 day for 68F exceedance.

Target Analysis Criteria

Please refer to the American River Group (ARG) Annual Report of Activities for details on within water year activities.

Target analysis and exceedance found on this page is based on criteria as described in NMFS 2009, pp614-5.

NMFS 2009. Biological and conference opinion on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. Long Beach, California. June 4. 844 pg. Plus appendices. Available online: www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/publications/Central_Valley/Water%20Operations/Operations,%20Criteria%20and%20Plan/nmfs_biological_and_conference_opinion_on_the_long-term_operations_of_the_cvp_and_swp.pdf

Direct quote from NMFS 2009, pp 614-615.

Action II.2. Lower American River Temperature Management

Objective: Maintain suitable temperatures to support over-summer rearing of juvenile steelhead in the lower American River.

Action: Each year, Reclamation shall prepare a draft Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan based on forecasted conditions and submit the draft Plan to NMFS for review by May 1 of each year. The information provided in the Operations Forecast will be used in the development of the Temperature Plan. The draft plan shall contain: (1) forecasts of hydrology and storage; (2) a modeling run or runs, using these forecasts, demonstrating that the temperature compliance point can be attained (see Coldwater Management Pool Model approach in Appendix 2-D); (3) a plan of operation based on this modeling run that demonstrates that all other non-discretionary requirements are met; and (4) allocations for discretionary deliveries that conform to the plan of operation. Reclamation shall use an iterative approach, varying proposed operations, with the objective to attain the temperature compliance point at Watt Avenue Bridge. Within ten calendar days of receiving the draft Temperature Plan, NMFS will provide a written review of this plan for the purpose of determining whether requirements in this Opinion are likely to be met. Reclamation shall produce a final plan prior to May 15 deliveries and implement the plan upon finalization. Reclamation may update the plan every month based on hydrology and must seek NMFS' concurrence on proposed deviations from the plan that may reduce the likelihood that the temperature objective will be met.

Temperature Requirement: Reclamation shall manage the Folsom/Nimbus Dam complex and the water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam to maintain a daily average water temperature of 65°F or lower at Watt Avenue Bridge from May 15 through October 31, to provide suitable conditions for juvenile steelhead rearing in the lower American River. If this temperature is exceeded for three consecutive days, or is exceeded by more than 3°F for a single day, Reclamation shall notify NMFS in writing and will convene the ARG to make recommendations regarding potential cold water management alternatives to improve water temperature conditions for fish, including potential power bypasses. If there is a lack of consensus on actions to be taken, the ARG shall advise NMFS and be elevated through the WOMT standard operating procedures.

Exception: When preparing the Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan, Reclamation may submit to NMFS a written determination that, after taking all actions within its authorities, it is unlikely to meet the above temperature requirement. This determination must be supported by specific iterative modeling techniques that vary allocations and delivery schedules such as application of the Coldwater Management Pool model (see Appendix 2-D). In the event that Reclamation determines that other nondiscretionary requirements (e.g., D-1641 or requirements of the USFWS' Delta smelt biological opinion) conflict with attainment of the temperature requirement, Reclamation will convene the ARG to obtain recommendations. If consensus cannot be achieved within the ARG, the ARG shall advise NMFS, and NMFS will make a recommendation to the WOMT, per standard operating procedures.

During the May 15 to October 31 period, when the 65°F temperature requirement cannot be met because of limited cold water availability in Folsom Reservoir, then the target daily average water temperature at Watt Avenue may be increased incrementally (i.e., no more than one degree Fahrenheit every 12 hours) to as high as 68°F.

The priority for use of the lowest water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam shall be to achieve the water temperature requirement for steelhead, and thereafter may also be used to provide cold water for fall-run spawning.

Rationale: As demonstrated in section 6.4 of this Opinion, steelhead are frequently exposed to water temperatures warmer than required for juvenile rearing, resulting in reduced fitness as is evident through the expression of visible thermal stress symptoms (i.e., bacterial inflammations). This thermal stress decreases steelhead immune system function and increases steelhead vulnerability to other sources of sub-lethal and lethal effects such as disease and predation. Monitoring of juvenile steelhead conducted by CDFG showed that bacterial inflammation was prevalent in steelhead throughout the river and the frequency of its occurrence increased as the duration of exposure to water temperatures over 65°F increased. The 65°F or lower daily average water temperature target was identified based on CDFG's monitoring as well as published scientific literature. Based on past convention of the ARG, the temperature compliance point is maintained at Watt Avenue Bridge, even though suitable rearing habitat is between Watt Avenue and Nimbus Dam.


Citation
Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington. (2019). SacPAS Lower American Temperature Target Analysis (RPA II.2). Available from http://www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/tc_american_RPAII.2.html
Generated: 15 Jun 2019 06:45:19 PDT. www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/.

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SacPAS: Central Valley Prediction & Assessment of Salmon, University of Washington, Columbia Basin Research, www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/