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Lower American Temperature Target Analysis based on RPA II.2


This page provides analysis, based on NMFS 2009 RPA II.2, of current and historical temperature conditions for fish using only observed data. Actual pre-season and in-season management decision processes are complex employing multiple sources of observed data, models, and forecasts. For further information, see the Target Analysis Criteria section.

View Analysis for: Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.
graph 2020 American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) Water Temp (F)

Current Juvenile Rearing Temperature Target Analysis Exceedance

2020 Temperature Target Analysis and Exceedance

Steelhead
Life Stage
Life Stage
Dates
RPA
Criterion
Possible
Days
Data
Days
Total Period Analyzed Criteria Exceedance
Average
Temperature
Days in
Target
Pct Days
Target
Days Pct of
Total Days
First Day Last Day
Juvenile Rearing (3 days) 5/15-10/31 Below 65F 170 80 64.9F 46 27.1% 34 20.0% 05/27 08/02
Juvenile Rearing (1 day) 5/15-10/31 Below 68F 170 80 64.9F 80 47.1% 0 0.0%    

Jump to Detail Data

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Color Vision Deficiency (CVD) colors
Note: Years prior to 2009 pre-date the RPAs and are provided for historical perspective on conditions.

Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History based on RPA II.2

graph Lower American Temperature Target Analysis History

2020 Lower American Temperature Target Analysis Data Table for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB), 5/15-10/31

Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
Year Month Day Value 3 Days Exceed 65F 1 Day Exceed 68F
2020 08 02 65.75 Exceed  
2020 08 01 65.50 Exceed  
2020 07 31 65.44 Exceed  
2020 07 30 65.18    
2020 07 29 65.06    
2020 07 28 64.88    
2020 07 27 64.48    
2020 07 26 64.40    
2020 07 25 64.52    
2020 07 24 66.74 Exceed  
2020 07 23 66.80 Exceed  
2020 07 22 66.41 Exceed  
2020 07 21 66.44 Exceed  
2020 07 20 66.96 Exceed  
2020 07 19 67.08 Exceed  
2020 07 18 66.62 Exceed  
2020 07 17 66.65 Exceed  
2020 07 16 66.74 Exceed  
2020 07 15 67.16 Exceed  
2020 07 14 66.56 Exceed  
2020 07 13 67.26 Exceed  
2020 07 12 67.40 Exceed  
2020 07 11 67.16 Exceed  
2020 07 10 66.92 Exceed  
2020 07 09 66.18 Exceed  
2020 07 08 65.89 Exceed  
2020 07 07 65.83 Exceed  
2020 07 06 66.24 Exceed  
2020 07 05 66.24 Exceed  
2020 07 04 65.76 Exceed  
2020 07 03 65.34 Exceed  
2020 07 02 65.30 Exceed  
2020 07 01 65.57    
2020 06 30 65.30    
2020 06 29 64.77    
2020 06 28 64.57    
2020 06 27 65.72 Exceed  
2020 06 26 66.06 Exceed  
2020 06 25 66.02 Exceed  
2020 06 24 65.95 Exceed  
2020 06 23 65.98 Exceed  
2020 06 22 65.81    
2020 06 21 65.39    
2020 06 20 64.94    
2020 06 19 65.14    
2020 06 18 64.60    
2020 06 17 63.62    
2020 06 16 63.43    
2020 06 15 63.17    
2020 06 14 62.91    
2020 06 13 62.44    
2020 06 12 62.83    
2020 06 11 64.14    
2020 06 10 64.14    
2020 06 09 63.41    
2020 06 08 62.86    
2020 06 07 63.51    
2020 06 06 63.24    
2020 06 05 64.37    
2020 06 04 65.56 Exceed  
2020 06 03 65.54    
2020 06 02 65.10    
2020 06 01 63.94    
2020 05 31 64.15    
2020 05 30 62.80    
2020 05 29 64.82    
2020 05 28 66.68 Exceed  
2020 05 27 67.05 Exceed  
2020 05 26 66.45    
2020 05 25 65.91    
2020 05 24 64.94    
2020 05 23 63.75    
2020 05 22 63.81    
2020 05 21 63.16    
2020 05 20 61.42    
2020 05 19 60.58    
2020 05 18 60.74    
2020 05 17 60.95    
2020 05 16 61.86    
2020 05 15 61.30    
2020 05 14 60.25    
2020 05 13 60.93    
2020 05 12 61.85    
2020 05 11 62.42    
2020 05 10 63.62    
2020 05 09 64.11    
2020 05 08 64.06    
2020 05 07 63.58    
2020 05 06 62.58    
2020 05 05 62.78    
2020 05 04 62.35    
2020 05 03 62.36    
2020 05 02 62.32    
2020 05 01 62.14    
2020 04 30 62.15    
2020 04 29 63.01    
2020 04 28 63.32    
2020 04 27 61.59    
2020 04 26 62.46    
2020 04 25 62.18    
2020 04 24 60.99    
2020 04 23 59.58    
2020 04 22 58.57    
2020 04 21 57.34    
2020 04 20 56.78    
2020 04 19 57.45    
2020 04 18 56.91    
2020 04 17 57.62    
2020 04 16 57.94    
2020 04 15 57.88    
2020 04 14 57.17    
2020 04 13 56.94    
2020 04 12 56.20    
2020 04 11 55.99    
2020 04 10 55.82    
2020 04 09 54.72    
2020 04 08 54.47    
2020 04 07 54.90    
2020 04 06 53.20    
2020 04 05 53.43    
2020 04 04 54.08    
2020 04 03 55.53    
2020 04 02 55.15    
2020 04 01 55.73    
2020 03 31 55.29    
2020 03 30 54.68    
2020 03 29 54.50    
2020 03 28 53.24    
2020 03 27 53.44    
2020 03 26 53.18    
2020 03 25 53.66    
2020 03 24 54.24    
2020 03 23 54.82    
2020 03 22 54.39    
2020 03 21 54.27    
2020 03 20 53.55    
2020 03 19 52.48    
2020 03 18 51.76    
2020 03 17 51.40    
2020 03 16 51.27    
2020 03 15 52.91    
2020 03 14 53.68    
2020 03 13 55.52    
2020 03 12 55.18    
2020 03 11 54.81    
2020 03 10 53.52    
2020 03 09 53.26    
2020 03 08 52.60    
2020 03 07 52.78    
2020 03 06 53.69    
2020 03 05 53.89    
2020 03 04 53.38    
2020 03 03 52.38    
2020 03 02 51.83    
2020 03 01 52.35    
2020 02 29 52.69    
2020 02 28 51.82    
2020 02 27 51.61    
2020 02 26 51.48    
2020 02 25 51.40    
2020 02 24 51.09    
2020 02 23 51.08    
2020 02 22 51.26    
2020 02 21 50.87    
2020 02 20 50.48    
2020 02 19 50.28    
2020 02 18 50.44    
2020 02 17 50.38    
2020 02 16 50.83    
2020 02 15 50.40    
2020 02 14 50.35    
2020 02 13 50.32    
2020 02 12 50.14    
2020 02 11 49.71    
2020 02 10 49.39    
2020 02 09 49.22    
2020 02 08 49.69    
2020 02 07 49.38    
2020 02 06 48.90    
2020 02 05 48.06    
2020 02 04 47.54    
2020 02 03 48.26    
2020 02 02 49.75    
2020 02 01 50.31    
2020 01 31 50.17    
2020 01 30 50.28    
2020 01 29 49.90    
2020 01 28 50.25    
2020 01 27 50.45    
2020 01 26 51.15    
2020 01 25 50.40    
2020 01 24 50.33    
2020 01 23 49.37    
2020 01 22 49.83    
2020 01 21 48.96    
2020 01 20 48.66    
2020 01 19 48.44    
2020 01 18 48.86    
2020 01 17 48.04    
2020 01 16 48.20    
2020 01 15 48.59    
2020 01 14 49.50    
2020 01 13 49.42    
2020 01 12 48.94    
2020 01 11 49.70    
2020 01 10 49.18    
2020 01 09 49.53    
2020 01 08 49.43    
2020 01 07 48.96    
2020 01 06 49.51    
2020 01 05 50.24    
2020 01 04 50.08    
2020 01 03 50.15    
2020 01 02 50.22    
2020 01 01 50.40    

Data Methods, Notes, Citations

Data Methods

  1. Data Courtesy of CDEC
  2. Hourly data for American R below Watt Ave Bridge (AWB) is retrieved from CDEC on a daily basis.
  3. Columbia Basin Research (CBR) QA/QC process on AWB hourly data for outliers, false data (e.g., 32F measured by satellite), and data outside expected range of observation (e.g., 90F). Data loaded into CBR database.
  4. CBR calculates Daily Average values based on CBR cleaned hourly values.
  5. Query for daily average water temperature for selected year.
  6. Examine daily average data record for running 3 days for 65F exceedance. Three day exceedance is assigned to third date.
  7. Examine daily average data record for 1 day for 68F exceedance.

Target Analysis Criteria

Please refer to the American River Group (ARG) Annual Report of Activities for details on within water year activities.

Target analysis and exceedance found on this page is based on criteria as described in NMFS 2009, pp614-5.

NMFS 2009. Biological and conference opinion on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. Long Beach, California. June 4. 844 pg. Plus appendices. Available online: www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/publications/Central_Valley/Water%20Operations/Operations,%20Criteria%20and%20Plan/nmfs_biological_and_conference_opinion_on_the_long-term_operations_of_the_cvp_and_swp.pdf

Direct quote from NMFS 2009, pp 614-615.

Action II.2. Lower American River Temperature Management

Objective: Maintain suitable temperatures to support over-summer rearing of juvenile steelhead in the lower American River.

Action: Each year, Reclamation shall prepare a draft Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan based on forecasted conditions and submit the draft Plan to NMFS for review by May 1 of each year. The information provided in the Operations Forecast will be used in the development of the Temperature Plan. The draft plan shall contain: (1) forecasts of hydrology and storage; (2) a modeling run or runs, using these forecasts, demonstrating that the temperature compliance point can be attained (see Coldwater Management Pool Model approach in Appendix 2-D); (3) a plan of operation based on this modeling run that demonstrates that all other non-discretionary requirements are met; and (4) allocations for discretionary deliveries that conform to the plan of operation. Reclamation shall use an iterative approach, varying proposed operations, with the objective to attain the temperature compliance point at Watt Avenue Bridge. Within ten calendar days of receiving the draft Temperature Plan, NMFS will provide a written review of this plan for the purpose of determining whether requirements in this Opinion are likely to be met. Reclamation shall produce a final plan prior to May 15 deliveries and implement the plan upon finalization. Reclamation may update the plan every month based on hydrology and must seek NMFS' concurrence on proposed deviations from the plan that may reduce the likelihood that the temperature objective will be met.

Temperature Requirement: Reclamation shall manage the Folsom/Nimbus Dam complex and the water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam to maintain a daily average water temperature of 65°F or lower at Watt Avenue Bridge from May 15 through October 31, to provide suitable conditions for juvenile steelhead rearing in the lower American River. If this temperature is exceeded for three consecutive days, or is exceeded by more than 3°F for a single day, Reclamation shall notify NMFS in writing and will convene the ARG to make recommendations regarding potential cold water management alternatives to improve water temperature conditions for fish, including potential power bypasses. If there is a lack of consensus on actions to be taken, the ARG shall advise NMFS and be elevated through the WOMT standard operating procedures.

Exception: When preparing the Operations Forecast and Temperature Management Plan, Reclamation may submit to NMFS a written determination that, after taking all actions within its authorities, it is unlikely to meet the above temperature requirement. This determination must be supported by specific iterative modeling techniques that vary allocations and delivery schedules such as application of the Coldwater Management Pool model (see Appendix 2-D). In the event that Reclamation determines that other nondiscretionary requirements (e.g., D-1641 or requirements of the USFWS' Delta smelt biological opinion) conflict with attainment of the temperature requirement, Reclamation will convene the ARG to obtain recommendations. If consensus cannot be achieved within the ARG, the ARG shall advise NMFS, and NMFS will make a recommendation to the WOMT, per standard operating procedures.

During the May 15 to October 31 period, when the 65°F temperature requirement cannot be met because of limited cold water availability in Folsom Reservoir, then the target daily average water temperature at Watt Avenue may be increased incrementally (i.e., no more than one degree Fahrenheit every 12 hours) to as high as 68°F.

The priority for use of the lowest water temperature control shutters at Folsom Dam shall be to achieve the water temperature requirement for steelhead, and thereafter may also be used to provide cold water for fall-run spawning.

Rationale: As demonstrated in section 6.4 of this Opinion, steelhead are frequently exposed to water temperatures warmer than required for juvenile rearing, resulting in reduced fitness as is evident through the expression of visible thermal stress symptoms (i.e., bacterial inflammations). This thermal stress decreases steelhead immune system function and increases steelhead vulnerability to other sources of sub-lethal and lethal effects such as disease and predation. Monitoring of juvenile steelhead conducted by CDFG showed that bacterial inflammation was prevalent in steelhead throughout the river and the frequency of its occurrence increased as the duration of exposure to water temperatures over 65°F increased. The 65°F or lower daily average water temperature target was identified based on CDFG's monitoring as well as published scientific literature. Based on past convention of the ARG, the temperature compliance point is maintained at Watt Avenue Bridge, even though suitable rearing habitat is between Watt Avenue and Nimbus Dam.


Citation
Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington. (2020). SacPAS Lower American Temperature Target Analysis (RPA II.2). Available from http://www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/tc_american_RPAII.2.html
Generated: 03 Aug 2020 06:45:07 PDT. www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/data/.

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SacPAS: Central Valley Prediction & Assessment of Salmon, University of Washington, Columbia Basin Research, www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/